Best Derrick Henry prop bet for Ravens vs. Jaguars on Thursday 11/5/26

Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday Night Football, with the Ravens hosting the Jaguars. With a third-string quarterback under center for the Baltimore offense, the outlook for Derrick Henry appears clear – heavy volume may be on the horizon. Against one of the league’s elite run-stopping units, the question becomes whether he’ll make the most of such chances.

Here’s the best Derrick Henry prop bet for Ravens vs. Jaguars on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.

Best Derrick Henry prop bet for Ravens vs. Jaguars

We like to say that Derrick Henry is practically immortal by the standards of the running back position. He’s coming off his second consecutive season with over 1,500 rushing yards since joining the Ravens, even despite being on the wrong side of 30. Typically, players at this position deteriorate and drop off by this age, but in the case of the King, the work continues.

At least, it seemed like it did. At age 32, Henry currently leads the NFL in rush attempts with 158 totes in eight games, good for just about 20 carries per outing. He’s taken those for 632 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, but his numbers are down a tick compared to the last couple of seasons. His average of 4.0 YPC is the lowest of his time in Baltimore and would actually mark a new career low if it continues for the remainder of the season; his 79.0 yards per game are also the fewest of his tenure with the team. Coming off just a couple of quieter weeks before tallying 53 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts in Week 8, there are still some worries that he may be regressing.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Henry’s player prop bet lines are set at O/U 67.5 rushing yards and 17.5 rush attempts. He also has receiving lines of 1.5 receptions and 7.5 receiving yards. His odds of an anytime touchdown are set at +125. As for the game lines, the Ravens are a 10-point underdog with the total set at 39.5 combined points.

This Baltimore offense will start third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano with both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley sidelined due to injury. The rookie UDFA could truly struggle against an elite defense, which likely means some additional volume for Henry as the coaching staff looks to insulate the young signal-caller. However, even higher volume may not translate to production on the ground for the star halfback.

No run defense in the league is better than the Jaguars’ front seven. This unit allows an average of only 57.7 rushing yards per game to running backs, the fewest of any team and over nine yards fewer than the second-closest group. Predictably, they’re also tied for the NFL lead in YPC allowed to RBs at 3.28, with the Seahawks the only other team stymying opposing backs at such a level. Jacksonville also sits tied for second with only 0.4 rushing touchdowns allowed per game to the position, too, and the unit ranks first in EPA/rush allowed.

This is a nightmare of a matchup for the Ravens both through the air and on the ground. The hope for Henry is that perhaps elevated volume could help him get over his rushing line, but even seeing opportunities may be a tough battle for Baltimore if the offense can’t sustain drives. The Jaguars like to run the football and are extremely efficient through the air, so if they build a lead early, they may dominate possession and force their opponent to abandon the run.

If any player prop for Henry makes sense here, it’s either the under on 67.5 rushing yards or over 1.5 receptions. The former does feel a little bit more likely than the latter, though perhaps a poor game script and a rookie third-stringer under center would allow the star running back to see an extra target or two compared to his typically-low involvement in the passing game. Still, this matchup is so fearsome that I’d rather target that under on his rushing line instead based on the strength of the Jags’ defensive front.

Best Bet: Derrick Henry under 67.5 rushing yards (-112)

Click the odds of this bet to tail!