National League blue bloods collide to start MLB’s second half, as the Los Angeles Dodgers kick off their East Coast swing with a weekend series against the New York Mets. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Julio Urias (6-5, 4.76 ERA) will start for L.A., while Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.60) gets the ball for New York.
The Dodgers enter as narrow -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at +100. The run total is set at 8.5.
Dodgers-Mets picks: Friday, July 14
Injury report
Los Angeles Dodgers
Out: SP Clayton Kershaw (shoulder), UTIL Chris Taylor (knee), SP Noah Syndergaard (finger), RP Shelby Miller (neck), RP Daniel Hudson (knee),
New York Mets
Day to day: OF Tommy Pham (groin)
Out: SP Jose Quintana (ribs), RP Edwin Uceta (knee), OF Tim Locastro (thumb)
Starting pitchers
Julio Urias vs. Justin Verlander
Urias has had bit of a bumpy season between injuries and inconsistency, but he looked like his old self in his last start before the All-Star break, striking out eight in six innings of two-run ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates. His command hasn’t been as sharp as we’re used to seeing — he’s allowed five or more runs four times this season — and the Dodgers will likely still have him on something of a pitch count in his second start back from a lengthy IL stint, but when he’s on, he’s still among the best starters in the game.
Verlander got off to a rough start after returning from a shoulder injury in May, but he’s been locked in since, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over seven starts since the start of June. At age 40, he’s not the same overwhelming strikeout pitcher we’ve grown accustomed to — his fastball velocity is down a tick, and he’s not earning as many whiffs on just about all of his pitches — but he’s still rock-solid, with a four-pitch arsenal, excellent command and the ability to work deep into games. Verlander has allowed just two runs and 15 hits over 18 innings across his last three outings.
Over/Under pick
These two lineups rank second and third in wRC+ since the start of July, but I’m still backing the under on Friday night. Verlander has been on a roll lately, allowing more than two runs just twice over the last month and a half. Urias, meanwhile, figures to get sharper and sharper the more innings he gets under his belt after his hamstring injury. Both offenses, but especially the Mets, have made a habit of disappearing at times throughout the year, and with two premium arms on the mound, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline pick
And in that low-scoring affair, the margins — base-running, the bullpens, etc. — become even more important, which is where the Dodgers have the edge. I trust L.A.’s late-inning options much more than New York’s, and I trust their lineup to get a big hit late and pick up a series-opening win.
Pick: Dodgers