Last week we easily cashed this prop on Cedric Tillman if you tailed, and while this week isn’t quite the smash spot, we’re still going back for more with his receiving props set too low.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Cedric Tillman OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
1.5-units
Two weeks ago in a loss to the Bengals, the Browns were a complete mess. It was the game Deshaun Watson went down in, and Cleveland played three quarterbacks. Nonetheless, we got one piece of valuable information — Tillman was slotting into the Amari Cooper role. He played a season-high in snaps by an enormous margin, and despite all the turnover at quarterback, still hauled in 8-of-12 targets for over 80 yards.
That was enough for me to back Tillman to go over his prop in the mid-30’s last week against the Ravens, and he had a breakout game. Tillman wound up securing 7-of-9 targets for 99 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner. Jameis Winston under center is clearly of the best interest for Cleveland’s pass-catchers, as Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy also combined for 164 yards on 20 targets, but Tillman was the downfield threat.
Admittedly, the matchup against Baltimore was ideal. The Ravens were allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL, and were also dinged up in the secondary. But the Chargers are just slightly above average in passing defense, getting worse as the season has gone on, and likely benefited from a soft start to the schedule.
Now the Chargers will have to deal with a revamped passing attack in Cleveland, which heavily features Tillman. After being the WR4 up until two weeks ago, Tillman played on a whopping 90% of the snaps against Baltimore, and is being heavily targeted on deep balls. So while the matchup isn’t quite as perfect as last week, and the yardage has gone up a bit, I still don’t believe the number is fully adjusted here.
Let’s back Tillman to continue breaking out in Week 9 against the Chargers.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
