Earlier in the week, I wrote up why I’m taking the points with the Browns against the Ravens, but as props were released, I found a play I like even more in this game. Cedric Tillman might not exactly be a household name, but he’s in prime position to go off on Sunday against Baltimore. Let’s breakdown why.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Cedric Tillman OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
2-units
It’s been an eventful 10 days or so for the Browns. With Deshaun Watson suffering a season-ending Achilles injury, Jameis Winston taking over as the starting quarterback and Ken Dorsey taking over offensive play calling duties, it’s easy to forget that Amari Cooper was just traded to the Bills.
While Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore remain in their usual roles, it was Tillman that was plugged directly into Cooper’s role on Sunday against the Bengals. Jeudy and Moore played 80 and 54 snaps (respectively), and were targeted six times each. Meanwhile, Tillman, who had previously played a season-high 26 snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, slotted in for 69 offensive snaps against the Bengals.
It was a tough game to get a real feel for, as the Browns played three different quarterbacks. But despite the strange flow to the game, Tillman was targeted 12 times, which he turned into eight receptions for 81 yards. He was also targeted two more times on a deep ball that a flag was thrown on, as well as a 2-point conversion that he caught late in the game from Winston.
Tillman had a long reception in the game of 25 yards, which was nice to see that it also came from Winston. Of the five incompletions that went his way (including the one not in the box score due to the flag), one was an interception by Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the other four were considered deep balls — so the Browns are looking for him deep down field.
It hasn’t been a pretty season for Cleveland from a passing game standpoint, but the forced move to Winston at QB has to be perceived as an upgrade. Winston has always had the ability to get the ball down field, and the Browns will be using Tillman, who was a 2023 third-round pick out of Tennessee, to do so on Sunday.
While the Ravens are big favorites in the game, it’s not because of their pass defense. Baltimore ranks dead-last in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and is giving up over 342 per game on the road. The Ravens also have the top-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, which along with game script, should really push the Browns towards the pass.
Also factor in with a new quarterback and new play caller in the same game, that divisional familiarity the Ravens normally have with the Browns is no longer there. So after playing on MNF, the Ravens will have to do their best to figure out Cleveland’s new passing attack on a short week.
That’s a lot of factors working in favor of the Browns being able to move the ball through the air in this game. Just a week after seeing 12 targets in his first game as a starter, this number is set much to low on Tillman’s receiving yards. Play on the over and look to play smaller on some alternate lines yourself.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
