After UFC 307, which took place in Salt Lake City, Utah, last weekend, the promotion returns home to the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. No. 1 Brandon Royal puts his top spot on the line in a title eliminator against rising star No. 5 Tatsuro Taira. The winner of this Main Event fight will be in a prime position to challenge the UFC Undisputed Flyweight Champion Alex Pantoja.
Taira has taken the UFC by storm, winning four of his six UFC victories by submission or TKO/KO. Most recently, he knocked out Alex Perez in June. Royval lost to Pantoja in a title at UFC 296 in December 2023 but followed it up with a victory against former champion Brandon Moreno. Royval is 6-3 in the UFC, with his last two losses coming against current champion Pantoja and former champion Moreno in 2020.
The UFC has not hosted an event in Japan since 2017, but that could all change if Taira continues to dominate the Flyweight division. UFC CEO Dana White recently said that the promotion wants to return to Japan, but it needs a big star from the country. At only 24 years old, Taira has what it takes to be the UFC’s next star from Japan.
Royval is the underdog at +240, while Taira is -298 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Taira continues to become a more significant favorite each day before the fight. Although Royval is the underdog, do not count him out. Royval is the most talented fighter and the most challenging test for Taira until now. If Taira passes this test easily, he will undoubtedly be next in line for a title opportunity.
Brad Tavares fights JunYong Park in a Middleweight Co-Main Event bout. Park is the favorite at -185, while Tavares is +154 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tavares has lost three of his last four fights and needs a win to get his career back on track. Park lost via a split decision vs. Andre Munioz in his previous contest. Before that, Park had three submissions in a row in the UFC.
Chidi Njokuani faces Jared Gooden in a three-round Welterweight bout. Njokuani is 3-3 in the UFC, while Gooden is 2-4 in the company. Gooden is in his second stint in the UFC and is coming off a submission victory against Wellington Turman in December 2023. Njokuani had a split-decision win over Rhys McKee in May. Both fighters need a win to further their career and keep their spot in the promotion.
Check out my two best bets and the entire card below. It all starts with the Prelims at 4:00 p.m. ET. The Prelims and the Main Card are taking place on ESPN+.
Daniel Rodriguez Moneyline (-218)
Although “D-Rod” lost his last three fights, the level of competition that he has fought lately has been elite. Most recently, by unanimous decision, he lost to former title challenger Kelvin Gastelum in June. Before that, he lost to No. 5 welterweight contender Ian Machado Garry and No. 15 Neli Magny. Rodriguez, 37, is trying to get back in the win column for the first time since he defeated Li Jingliang at UFC 279 in September 2022.
Even though he is getting older, Rodriguez still showed up in good shape against Gastelum and landed 127 significant strikes. However, he struggled on the ground. This fight will likely be contested on the feet. Rodriguez is a much more accurate striker, landing 49 percent of his significant strikes compared to 41 percent for Moreno.
At 37, Rodriguez is in a must-win situation to avoid losing his fourth straight fight. Morono is a competitive veteran fighter, but he isn’t on the level of Rodriguez’s past opponents. If this fight stays on the feet, Rodriguez should be in an excellent position to win, and don’t be surprised if he has a knockout for the first time since 2021.
Grant Dawson to Win by KO/TKO or Submission (+275)
Dawson started his UFC career on an eight-fight win streak but suffered his first loss in October 2023 to King Green. At UFC 302 in Newark, New Jersey, Dawson bounced back with a dominant victory over Joe Solecki. Dawson has a significant size advantage over Garcia, three inches in height (5’10” vs. 5’7″) and two inches in reach (72″ vs. 70″).
Five of Dawson’s nine victories inside the UFC Octagon have come by KO/TKO or Submission. For Dawson to move up in the stacked lightweight division, he must win impressively. In his last two wins, he hasn’t done that. Dawson won two decisions against Damir Ismagulov and Solecki but needs to be more aggressive to further his career. Still only 30 years old, Dawson has a bright future in the UFC if he can finish the job this Saturday.
Dawson is a massive favorite at -425 in this contest on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dawson is (+275) to win this fight by finish, which is excellent value compared to the moneyline.
Main Card Starts at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
| Matchup: | Records: | Weight Class: | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook: |
| #1 Brandon Royval vs. #5 Tatsuro Taira | 16-7 (6-3 UFC) vs. 16-0 (6-0 UFC) | Flyweight | +240 vs. -298 |
| Brad Tavares vs. JunYong Park | 20-10 (15-10 UFC) vs. 17-6 (7-3 UFC) | Middleweight | +164 vs. -198 |
| Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden | 23-10 (3-3 UFC) vs. 23-9 (2-4 UFC) | Welterweight | -170 vs. +142 |
| Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia | 21-2-1 (9-1-1 UFC) vs. 16-3 (4-3 UFC) | Lightweight | -425 vs. +330 |
| Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono | 17-5 (7-4 UFC) vs. 24-10 (13-7 UFC) | Welterweight | -218 vs. +180 |
Prelims on ESPN+/ ESPN NEWS start at 4 p.m. ET
| Matchup: | Records: | Weight Class: | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook: |
| CJ Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov | 12-5-1 (3-3 UFC) vs. 17-2 | Flyweight | +280 vs. -355 |
| Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini | 14-6 (5-3 UFC) vs. 18-5 (5-2 UFC) | Featherweight | -180 vs. +150 |
| Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price | 13-4 (3-1 UFC) vs. 16-7 (8-7 UFC) | Welterweight | -380 vs. +300 |
| Julia Polastri vs. Cory McKenna | 12-4 (1-2 UFC) vs. 8-3 (3-2 UFC) | W Strawweight | -130 vs. +110 |
| Junior Tafa vs. Sean Sharaf | 5-3 (1-3 UFC) vs. 4-0 | Heavyweight | -325 vs. +260 |
| Dan Argueta vs. Cody Haddon | 9-2 (1-2 UFC) vs. 7-1 (1-0 UFC) | Bantamweight | +150 vs. -180 |
| Clayton Carpenter vs. Lucas Rocha | 7-0 (2-0 UFC) vs. 17-1 (1-0 UFC) | Flyweight | -205 vs. +170 |
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ryanwohl) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
