For the third time in the past five months, the Undisputed Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira will defend his title against No. 8 Khalil Rountree Jr. at UFC 307. ‘Poatan’ is looking to break former champion Ronda Rousey’s record for the shortest time between title defenses. Rousey had three defenses in 189 days, and Pereira will have a chance to have his third successful defense in just 175 days.
This card is stacked from top to bottom, featuring four former world champions and an Olympic Gold Medalist. The Early Prelims start at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Prelims at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ and the Main Card begins at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV. Raquel Pennington puts her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title on the line against former champion No. 1 Julianna Pena. No. 10 Jose Aldo returns after an inspiring performance in May to fight up-and-coming No. 11 Mario Bautista. Will the champions retain or will new dreams be realized?
Check out my favorite fighters to add to your daily fantasy lineup this Saturday for UFC 307.
Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $600K UFC 307 Special [$200K to 1st]
Studs
Kayla Harrison ($9,800)
This will likely be a popular pick in contests for UFC 307, but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t get in on it, either. Former PFL Champion and Olympic Gold Medalist Kayla Harrison debuted at UFC 300 in April and lived up to the hype. Harrison beat former champion Holly Holm in the second round by submission. From the start of the fight, Harrison asserted her dominance and finished the contest with almost five minutes of control time and two takedowns.
As she was an already established superstar when signing with the UFC, it didn’t take her a long time to enter the top three in the women’s bantamweight division. Harrison is one win away from challenging for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title. At UFC 307, Harrison faces No. 2 Ketlen Vieira ($6,400), who has won three of her past four fights.
Vieira has a 92% takedown defense, but she will have the toughest test of her career with Harrison. Both fighters stand at 5’8″ and Vieira has a two-inch reach advantage (68″ vs. 66″). Harrison is the highest-priced fighter on this card, but she is worth the hefty price tag. Harrison scored 113 points in her UFC debut and is in an excellent position to add value to your lineup on Saturday.
Alex Pereira ($9,600)
“Poatan” is a safe pick to add to your lineup, as he is a huge favorite at -500 against No. 8 Rountree on DraftKings Sportsbook. Khalil Rountree ($6,600) does possess legit one-punch knockout power, but to me, the size mismatch will play a huge role in this contest. Pereira has a three-inch advantage in height (6’4″ vs. 6’1″) and reach (79″ vs. 76″) over Rountree.
Pereira has scored over 100 FPTS in each of his last two fights. Two fights ago, he scored 98 points against Jiri Prochazka in their first fight at UFC 295. The last time Pereira fought, he had a price tag of $8,500, but after having a knockout victory for the third time in a row, his price increased by $1,100. Pereira has a 63% significant strike accuracy, while Rountree’s is only 39%. Pereira lands nearly 1.5 more strikes per minute than Rountree does. “Poatan” is the more skilled fighter on the feet, and unless Rountree lands a knockout punch, this is Pereira’s fight to lose. Pereira will add value to your fantasy lineup if he keeps Rountree at range and controls the pace, as he usually does.
Value Play
Julianna Pena ($7,800)
Pena is returning to the Octagon after over 26 months away from MMA. In her last fight, she lost to Amanda Nunes in a rematch at UFC 277 in July 2022. Pena submitted Nunes in December 2021 to become the Women’s Bantamweight Champion. This will be Pena’s 10th fight in the UFC in her eight years in the company. Throughout her career, Pena has struggled to stay active and has only fought twice in a single calendar year two times during her time in the UFC.
Pena faces the new champion, Raquel “Rocky” Pennington, who defeated Mayra Bueno Silva in a vacant tile fight at UFC 297 in January. Pennington is on a six-fight win streak but has only one finish during that stretch. Pena wants to become the second two-time Women’s Bantamweight Champion next to Nunes. Pennington is one inch taller (5’7″ vs. 5’6″), but Pena has a two-inch advantage in the reach department (69″ vs. 67″).
Pennington is slightly better striker, landing 52% of her significant strikes, while Pena lands 47%. But Pena is much better on the ground, averaging about two takedowns per 15 minutes and completing 55% of her takedown attempts. Although Pena is making her return after a long time away from the sport, her price tag it is too great of a value to pass up. Even though Pena only scored 38 FPTS in her previous loss, she has totaled at least 90 FPTS in her last two wins. If Pena comes out aggressive like she was against Nunes, she will find a lot of success, which will significantly benefit your lineups.
Pena is a slight underdog at +142 while Pennington is -170 in the co-main event. If Pena had been more active lately, she would likely have been the favorite in this contest.
Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $600K UFC 307 Special [$200K to 1st].
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ryanwohl) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
