Tell you what. I’ll stay up late on Wednesday, so that you don’t have to get up early to figure out your MLB lineups on Thursday. But you own me one. I won’t forget.
It’s a six-game slate. Let’s dive in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $80K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Value
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals vs. Kansas City Royals, $6,900 – What could possibly go wrong? I won’t go as far as saying Corbin’s been good in the second-half of the season — his ERA remains astronomical — but the veteran left-hander does own a 3.44 xFIP across his last 12 starts. The 35-year-old’s 22.3% strikeout rate is slightly above-average in that same span. Heck, Corbin’s mustered over 22.0 FPTS in four of his last six outings. Is it 2019 again?! Not quite. However, Corbin should be able to take advantage of a Royals squad that has looked lost offensively since losing Vinnie Pasquantino (thumb) to injury. Since September 1, Kansas City sits dead-last in ISO (.101) and wRC+ (66). Let’s get weird, people.
INFIELD
Stud
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, $5,200 – This has been a season to forget for Goldschmidt, but the former MVP has looked slightly better since the calendar flipped to July a few months ago. Specifically, Goldschmidt has gotten back to crushing LHPs. In his last 70 plate appearances within the split, Goldschmidt is slashing .306/.377/.548 with a 157 wRC+. The lefty in question on Thursday? Kyle Freeland ($6,200). At Coors Field. Seems like a good spot to me.
Stud
Josh Smith, Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, $4,100 – We don’t have a massive sample size with J.T. Ginn ($7,100), but in the data we do have, we know he’s struggled quite a bit with LHBs. To wit, Ginn’s surrendered a .328 average and a .385 wOBA to the 66 left-handed hitters he’s faced at the big league level in 2024. Smith is left-handed. Smith is also locked into the two-spot in Texas’ lineup with Corey Seager on the IL with a season-ending injury. I’d take a look at both he and Nathaniel Lowe ($3,300) in this matchup.
Value
Andy Ibanez, Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $2,400 – No team is hotter than the Tigers, who seem like they’re on their way to a playoff berth a decade in the making. Ibanez hasn’t been the biggest contributor in this run of success, but the utility man does have his role. In 145 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, Ibanez is slashing .302/.366/.457 with a 136 wRC+. He also hit leadoff for Detroit the last time it faced a southpaw. If that’s the case again on Thursday, Ibanez is one of the best values on the slate, particularly in a matchup with Tyler Alexander ($7,400), who is allowing 2.02 opponent home runs per nine.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $5,600 – Cruz didn’t have the breakout campaign some were expecting in 2024, yet the recently converted outfielder does come into Thursday’s action with his first 20/20 season already under his belt. Cruz has also been much better at the plate since the All-Star break, hitting .297 with a 137 wRC+. Meanwhile, Aaron Civale ($7,700) might be Cruz’s perfect matchup. Not only is the veteran right-handed — a necessity when rostering Cruz — but he sports just a 21st percentile whiff rate (21.9%). If Cruz can actually make contact, he’s a stud. In fact, his .474 expected wOBA on batted ball events ranks in the 96th percentile of qualified hitters.
Value
Justyn-Henry Malloy, Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $2,700 – You have to love how cheap it is to stack the Tigers — especially their right-handed platoon bats. Just like the aforementioned Ibanez, Malloy doesn’t get every day at-bats. However, he should be in Thursday’s lineup with the left-handed Alexander on the mound for the Rays. Why? Well, the rookie has posted some big numbers in opposite-hand matchups in 2024, with a .406 wOBA and a 170 wRC+ in his 56 plate appearances within the split. With a price tag this small, I’m willing to trust the tiny sample.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $80K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
