We’re off to arguably the most wild start to an NFL season that we’ve ever had. Through three weeks, underdogs of six or more points are 12-1 ATS, including eight straight up wins. Underdogs of a touchdown or more are a perfect 4-0 outright. The largest underdog in each of the first three weeks has won the game outright. Insane stuff. In short, let’s tread carefully.
With that said, I’ve identified one early side for NFL Week 4 that I bet on. With plenty of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook, and more populating throughout the week, let’s dive into the plays.
I did place a bet on a prop for Thursday Night Football between the Cowboys and Giants, which you can find here.
PIT ML (-122) at IND
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The Steelers have scored a total of just 51 points so far this season, yet sit at a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS). Maybe the schedule will catch up with them down the line, but a trip to Indianapolis feels like a pretty strong matchup for Pittsburgh in Week 4.
While these two teams have been relatively evenly matched through three games in terms of offensive production, turnovers and defense tell a completely different story. Anthony Richardson has been a shaky decision maker to say the least, as the only quarterback in the league completing less than 50% of his passes. He’s also had issues protecting the ball, now with six interceptions to just three touchdown passes — and if you’ve used the eye test on some of the interceptions, it’s been really poor decision making.
Meanwhile, Justin Fields is protecting the ball, getting picked off just once through three games. He only has two touchdown passes, but when you can run the ball and play defense, Fields’ ability to simply not make mistakes has been valuable. Something Richardson hasn’t been able to do. The Colts rank 24th in passing yards per game and 11th in rushing yards per game. While the Steelers rank 29th and 12th in those categories, respectively, I think calling this a wash would be generous to Indy. Not to mention the offense did heat up a bit, going for 232 passing yards against a highly rated Chargers defense last week.
Richardson should make mistakes against this Pittsburgh defense. T.J. Watt is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, and has been an absolute menace to opposing quarterbacks. Expect him to make Richardson very uncomfortable. The Steelers have forced five turnovers through three games, four of them interceptions. But even when they aren’t forcing Richardson into errors, their defense is just about as solid as it gets in all aspects.
Pittsburgh is allowing a mere 158.3 passing yards and 71.3 rushing yards per game — ranking fifth and second, respectively. Even more impressive, the Steelers are allowing an NFL-best 8.7 points per game. Let’s compare that to the Indy side, allowing 184.3 passing yards (24th) and 179 rushing yards (31st) per game.
I expect the Steelers to take care of the ball, and run the ball right through this Indy defense. Mix in a couple of mistakes by Richardson, and that’ll make it very difficult for the Colts to get this one at home.
PIT at IND: Najee Harris OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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I posted this to Twitter on Thursday evening. Harris has seen excellent volume this season, and while he hasn’t had an explosive game yet, he’s just gone over this number in all three games. He posted lines of 20-70-0 at Atlanta, 17-69-0 at Denver, and then 18-70-0 versus the Chargers. Harris has a firm grasp on the backfield, out-snapping Jaylen Warren 108-76 so far this season, and out-carrying him by an even more convincing margin of 55-28.
Both players got banged up on Sunday, but Harris was just an arm injury, and he appears in better shape than Warren. Harris is on track to be a full go, while Warren hasn’t been practicing with a knee injury, putting his status in doubt.
Harris should continue to see a bulk of the carries against an Indy defense that ranks just 31st against the run, allowing 179 yards per game. If Harris has a breakout game, this would be the spot. But on volume alone, this feels like a modest number.
6-Point Teaser: TB +7.5/KC -1 (-120)
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The Eagles have been a fantastic team to tease against at this number, going back through last season. The Eagles won just four of their 18 games by more than a touchdown last season, and they’ve yet to cover this margin in 2024. Yes, it is a revenge spot for Philly after the 32-9 thumping Tampa put on it in the playoffs last season, but they don’t have good health going into this game.
The Eagles are off a trip to Brazil, then a shocking MNF home loss to the Falcons, and then barely scrapped out a road win in New Orleans. Now they are on the road again, and face a Bucs squad that was embarrassed at home by the Broncos. I like Tampa to bounce-back strong. Look for the Bucs to get it going through the air, while the Eagles should struggle on offense, potentially down their top-two receivers and a couple of offensive lineman.
The Chiefs are due for a loss at some point, but this doesn’t feel like the spot. Justin Herbert has already suffered multiple foot/ankle injuries this season, and was in a walking boot this week. The Chargers are also down multiple key players, including No. 5 overall pick Joe Alt. Kansas City should find a way to get out of Los Angeles with another win.
CIN at CAR: Chuba Hubbard OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Hubbard and the Panthers obviously faced extremely negative game scripts in the first two games of the season, getting blown out by the Saints and Chargers with Bryce Young playing quarterback. While Hubbard was completely shutdown in Week 1, he did manage to rip off 64 yards on just 10 carries against a solid Chargers defense.
Due to the blowouts, Hubbard managed just 16 total carries in the first two games, and got his final carries in each game early in the fourth quarter. Enter Andy Dalton, who changed Carolina’s offense. Sure, the Raiders were dreadful, so we don’t want to overreact to the numbers from one game. But 21 carries for 114 yards rushing from Hubbard was very encouraging, not to mention another 5-55-1 line as a pass catcher.
Hubbard has played at least eight more snaps than Miles Sanders in each game thus far, and could likely separate even more as the Panthers play more competitive games. But Hubbard has clearly been Carolina’s preferred ball carrier, out-carrying Sanders 37-19. The production has obviously been more impressive by Hubbard, who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, compared to just 3.1 for Sanders.
The lookahead line on this game was Bengals -7, so at the shorter spread, I do lean Cincy as the side. But I also don’t see a blowout here, which should keep Carolina in the game long enough to feed Hubbard, particularly following his big game. The Bengals are a strong matchup for opposing running backs, as Cincinnati is allowing over 142 rushing yards per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Here’s what opposing running backs have posted against the Bengals so far this season.
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 25-120-1
- Isaiah Pacheco 19-90-0 (prior to leaving with injury)
- Brian Robinson/Austin Ekeler (combined): 19-68-2 (with Jayden Daniels also taking 12 carries)
Look for Hubbard to continue producing now that he has stability at the quarterback position, and squares off against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL through three weeks.
CIN at CAR: Dionte Johnson OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
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Let’s take the first two games of the season and throw them out the window for the Carolina offense. Bryce Young was under center, and things just weren’t working. But the Panthers do have a good offensive line, as PFF ranked them the No. 5 pass blocking line when Young was under center. We saw that was the case with Andy Dalton under center, going for a huge game in a win over the Raiders.
Johnson posted a line of 8-122-1 on 14 targets in Las Vegas. That was in a game that Adam Thielen got injured after hauling in three passes for 40 yards and a touchdown. Now Thielen is out with a hamstring injury, which means Johnson will remain the clear go-to-guy. Dalton has shown in limited sample that he can feed a WR1 for a big game, as his only other start with Carolina last season led to an 11-145-1 line for Thielen on 14 targets.
Now Johnson is in that role against a Cincinnati defense that has really struggled to get stops. The Bengals played the Patriots in Week 1, and no receiver for New England went off. But the Patriots have been the worst passing offense in the NFL. Since then, Rashee Rice posted a 5-75-1 line on the Bengals, and Terry McClaurin went off for 4-100-1 — and was over 62.5 yards prior to his game-winning touchdown catch.
Look for Johnson to see a ton of volume against a poor Cincy secondary. It should be noted that Johnson was tagged as questionable on Friday afternoon, but if he’s good to go then I like the play.
LAR at CHI: D’Andre Swift UNDER 40.5 Rushing Yards (-135)
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I put this one out on Twitter on Thursday morning, and the number has since plummeted to 35.5. I don’t care — still think the under is a very strong play.
Swift has been as bad as it gets this season, gaining just 1.8 yards per carry. He’s had double-digit carries in every game so far, but failed to top 30 yards. That includes 13 carries for 20 yards last week against an Indy run defense that was last in the league entering the game. The Bears made an adjustment in-game to go to Roschon Johnson, who was a little bit better.
Now reports indicate the Johnson will be getting a look as the lead running back this week against the Rams. With Johnson taking over the lead role, and Swift struggling about as much as you can be, I’m expecting Swift to handle RB2 duties in this game. I don’t think he gets more than a couple carries in this game, and with his lack of explosiveness, it’s hard to imagine he breaks one off.
I think this is a play practically as low as the number goes. Swift could even see a couple snaps without carrying the ball, but I’m thinking something along the lines of two or three carries for 10 or less yards is easily in play.
KC at LAC: Carson Steele OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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I posted this one to Twitter on Thursday evening, missing the opener of 40.5, but still expect the number to climb even more.
With Isaiah Pacheco sidelined, Steele played on 62% on the snaps on Sunday night in Atlanta. That was a competitive game that came down to the wire, yet, Steele still carried 17 times for 72 yards. While Semaje Perine saw a role early, it was Steele that earned more carries as the game went on. I’d expect Steele to be the featured back for Kansas City in this game, which would make this number far too low.
Factor in that the Chiefs are favorites of a touchdown or more against a really dinged up Chargers team, and there’s a game script here for Steele to get a ton of work as this game goes on. I’d consider laddering Steele up to 70+ or 80+ rushing yards in this one.
WAS at ARI: Greg Dortch OVER 3.5 Receptions (-130)
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Dortch exceeded this number in Week 1, hauling in 6-of-8 targets in Buffalo. He had just two receptions in Week 2, but left the game with an injury, and followed it up with three receptions in Week 3. But Dortch still has 16 targets on the young season, and the bigger news here it that Trey McBride has ben ruled out. McBride has turned 21 targets into 14 receptions for 122 yards so far this season, and some of that production should go to Dortch on Sunday.
Add in that Marvin Harrison Jr. is also a bit dinged up, and the Cardinals get a cushy matchup against a poor Washington secondary. Dortch should be in position for a solid workload in Arizona.
DEN at NYJ: Garrett Wilson UNDER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Aaron Rodgers has struggled to get on the same page with Wilson in the early going. Wilson has hung right around this number a couple of times, going for 6-60-0 on 11 targets against the Niners, 4-57-0 on six targets against the Titans, and then just 5-33-1 on nine targets against the Patriots. Eventually, I do expect this duo to put it all together, but this probably isn’t the matchup to do so.
Going up against the Broncos means that Wilson will be shadowed by Patrick Surtain II. Here’s what opposing WR1’s have accomplished so far this season in that matchup:
- DK Metcalf – 3-29-0 on four targets.
- George Pickens – 2-29-0 on four targets.
- Mike Evans – 2-17-0 on three targets.
That’s a grand total of 7-75-0 on 11 targets in three games against elite competition. It’s just a bad idea to throw Surtain’s way, and when you do, you don’t get much. Expect the Jets to run the ball and look to other options, but this is not a breakout spot for Wilson.
DEN at NYJ: Allen Lazard OVER 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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On the flip side, Rodgers is going to have to throw to someone, and Lazard has been his guy … for years. I’ve bet Lazard on his receiving yards prop twice this year, cashing both in Weeks 1 and 3. Aside from the early success this season, we have the negative matchup for Wilson to play off of. And with Wilson taken away, Rodgers will look to a pass catcher he’s familiar with. Over their last 22 games played together, Rodgers has found Lazard for more than 30 yards 17 times.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
