We’re onto Week 4 of the NFL season, and it’s been an absolutely insane start betting sides thus far. Underdogs of six or more points are 12-1 ATS this season, including eight outright victories. The largest underdog in each of the first three weeks has won the game outright, and underdogs of a touchdown or more are a perfect 4-0 outright. Thursday brings us a matchup of 1-2 teams in the NFC East, as the Cowboys travel east to play the Giants. I’m looking to back a player prop for my best bet, available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Devin Singletary OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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The Giants had to let Saquon Barkley go this offseason, and he’s enjoying tons of success thus far in Philadelphia. But New York was able to replace Barkley with Singletary, and didn’t provide much from a backup standpoint at the position. That’s led to Singletary playing 72% of the offensive snaps through three weeks, and we’re seeing the production on the field.
Singletary had a very tough matchup in Week 1 against Minnesota, which ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (71.3 per game). The game script also wasn’t there for the Giants to run the ball, as they fell behind by multiple scores early in the game. However, the last couple of games, New York has done a good job featuring Singletary in the backfield.
In Week 2, Singletary finished with a 16-95-1 line against Washington, which ranks 17th in rushing yards per game allowed. Just last week in Cleveland, he carrying the ball 16 times again, gaining 65 yards and scoring a touchdown. The Browns rank 13th so far this season in rushing yards allowed. When competitive in a game, the Giants have shown the willingness to give Singletary a big workload, and the breakout of Malik Nabers really opens things up for this offense. Nabers is off to a historic start to his career, hauling in 23-of-37 targets for 271 yards and three touchdowns.
Now the Cowboys come to town on a short week, and while the lookahead number on this game last week was Dallas -7, the spread has floated between four to five points early in the week. The Cowboys will have to pay attention to the big play ability of Nabers down field, but enter Week 4 allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL. Dallas is surrendering 185.7 yards per game on the ground, including 232 and 274 in its last two games. That includes 115 yards rushing from Alvin Kamara and 151 from Derrick Henry.
While the Cowboys might be in a desperate spot to save their season, the numbers suggest that they really struggle against the run. Good spot to take a modest number on the running back for the home team. I’m expecting another 15-plus carries for Singletary, which should be enough for him to top the 60-yard mark on Thursday in the Meadowlands.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
