In an era in which all focus seems to be on finding that next rising star, sometimes the good ones right in front of us get thrown to the side.
This feels to be the case with Kyler Murray, who has re-announced his presence on the NFL stage over the first three games of this season. The 2019 number one overall pick is a former Offensive Rookie of the Year winner, a two-time Pro Bowler, and has just turned 27 years old. Through the opening three games of the season, Murray has thrown for 635 yards and five touchdowns while adding 161 yards with his legs. He looks as healthy as he has been in quite some time and has a re-tooled roster that has changed the team’s outlook.
Heading into Week 4, there has already been some notable line movement regarding Kyler Murray’s MVP outlook. Currently, he holds +2200 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win MVP which is tied for the 8th-best odds in the league. This is a notable leap as Murray entered the season with +5000 odds to win the MVP trophy.
While the boat may have been missed on the most significant value, Murray’s +2200 odds to win MVP may still be worth taking a chance on.
Kyler Murray’s 2024 MVP Case
It feels like the goalposts for what voters are looking at for MVP voting change on nearly a year-by-year basis. However, the first step will always be team success.
Arizona currently holds a record of 1-2 and most recently suffered a loss to the Detroit Lions. While the NFC West is expected to be one of the most competitive in the sport, things are still fairly open. The Seattle Seahawks are off to a 3-0 start while the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals each sit with a record of 1-2. Looking at the odds, the 49ers are still considered the favorites at -105 odds to win the division. Seattle holds +190 odds while the Cardinals are +750 and the Rams are +800 to win the division.
The losses to the Bills and Lions should not have alarms going off in Arizona as there still is plenty of football to be played. However, the odds are still fairly pessimistic about the Cardinals’ outlook as they hold +290 odds to make the playoffs and are considered -400 to miss it on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The first step toward cementing his chance at the NFL’s most prestigious award is to elevate the team’s success and secure a postseason birth. Arizona has not been back to the playoffs since 2021 which also was Murray’s last Pro Bowl appearance.
Looking at the production for this year, Murray is right in the mix for where needs to be. Through the opening three weeks, he ranks 4th in QBR, 6th in QB Rating, 13th in passing yards, tied for 4th in passing touchdowns, and is 2nd to only Lamar Jackson for rushing yards among quarterbacks. While too early to fully project forward, Murray has a chance to produce some of his best career numbers this season.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has already flashed what a difference he can make within the offense. The 4th overall pick has recorded 198 yards and three touchdowns through the opening three weeks. As Murray continues to build chemistry with the rookie, look at this to be a driving reason why the Cardinals could look different this year.
The concern with Murray’s MVP race is he may not be able to reach the heights of some of his NFL QB counterparts. While Murray has started strong and is in a great position to impress on the year, he still may not be able to build a resume as strong as players like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or C.J. Stroud.
Even still, the massive odds change without true team success is worth noting. Arizona’s lone win came against the Los Angeles Rams which marks their only divisional matchup thus far—divisional matchups will play a major role in deciding their playoff outlook. However, there are opportunities outside of this to produce wins against teams like the Commanders, Chargers, Dolphins, Bears, Vikings, and Panthers.
The Cardinals have not won more than 11 games during Murray’s tenure and are a combined 9-28 since the 2021 season. If the Cardinals grow into a legitimate playoff threat, Murray will be at the center of the team’s production. His dual-threat ability and style of play make him as valuable to his team as any other player is to theirs, excluding Patrick Mahomes.
There is still a great deal of football left to be played, but keep an eye on Murray’s MVP case moving forward. If you believe in the Cardinals on the year, you should believe in Murray’s case continuing to be built and there will not be more value on the table this season than what is currently there.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
