Week 3 gets underway on Thursday night with an AFC East matchup between the Patriots and Jets. This one is expected to be a grinder, with a total under 40 points, and the Jets favored by just shy of a touchdown on DraftKings Sportsbook. I lean to the Jets and the under in this one, but will likely stay away and just focus on props. Here’s the play that I first went to.
Allen Lazard OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
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Lazard and Aaron Rodgers have good chemistry from their days in Green Bay, and we saw that on display in Week 1 in San Francisco. Lazard finished with six receptions for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns, although the final score did come from Tyrod Taylor in garbage time. Lazard was targeted nine times in the game, though, failing to bring in his first three from Rodgers.
The Week 2 matchup against the Titans dictated less work for Lazard and the rest of the wide receivers. New York’s running backs got 30 total touches, and wound up scoring all three of the team’s touchdowns. Week 3 likely sets up going back more of a passing attack against the Patriots. While New England did a decent job of limiting the Bengals in their Week 1 upset, there was a ton of rust on the Cincinnati side. Joe Burrow was returning from a wrist injury, and was missing all of his top receivers, with the exception of Ja’Mar Chase — who played through food poisoning, not to mention limited reps due to his contract holdout.
Seattle was a completely different animal for New England in Week 2, as the Pats surrendered 312 yards through the air. DK Metcalf led the way with 10 receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown (14 targets), while Jaxon Smith-Njigba hauled in 12-of-16 targets for 117 yards. However, from a matchup perspective, we should be looking at Christian Gonzalez shadowing Garrett Wilson in this game. Gonzalez mostly shadowed Metcalf last Sunday, limiting him to just three receptions for 24 yards on 36 routes (per Next Gen Stats). Metcalf ran eight routes against other defenders, and that’s where he caught all seven of his targets for all the damage.
But the bigger impact is with what was happening away from Metcalf. Smith-Njigba’s role last week is the matchup that Lazard figures to see through most of the game, and the numbers show that he was able to feast. Ja’Whaun Bentley, who was the signal caller for the New England defense, went down for the season last week. With him out of the mix, expect a bit more confusion on the side of the Patriots, especially if the Jets use some motion. The Patriots also rank second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game through two weeks at just 58 per game, which could lead the Jets to stay away from the strength of the defense.
In their last season together in Green Bay, Rodgers was able to hit Lazard for 30 or more yards in 12 of 15 games. Look for Lazard to see a healthy dose of targets on Thursday night.
Other Considerations
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Stevenson has been the anchor of the offense for the Patriots, finishing with lines of 25-120-1 and 21-81-1 through two games. Averaging just 122.5 passing yards per game, we know New England is going to make a goal of getting the ball to Stevenson. The matchup lines up well with the Jets, who rank 24th in rushing yards allowed per game at 155. This should be an over play on pure volume, but my only concern is the Jets selling out to stop the run against a passing game that has been nonexistent through two weeks.
K.J. Osborn UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-165): I laid out how poor the passing game for New England has been above. In fact, New England’s wide receivers have totaled just 11 receptions combined through two games. Osborn is by far the leader … with a total of four. Nobody else has more than two. Osborn caught 3-of-6 targets in Week 1, but regressed to just one reception on two targets last week. I’d guess that the line we saw in Week 2 is more representative of what we see moving forward, but I’m not ready to lay -165 unless I get a bit more clarity here. Pop Douglas is the best receiver on the team, and he failed to have a reception against Seattle. New England should make a point of getting the ball to Douglas this week, limiting the opportunities for Osborn. Osborn does lead the Patriots WR group in snap count, though, so it’s a low under for someone that should be on the field quite a bit.
6-Point Teaser: NYJ -0.5/U44.5: I don’t often tease totals or play a teaser in the same game, but this one feels like it could have some value. New England has four offensive lineman injured, and will be starting its third left tackle in as many games. The Jets should have the pieces to attack New England through the air to get the win, and then grind the clock out on a short week. We know with the lack of pass blocking, the Patriots will do their best to run the ball and control the clock. Could be some value to backing the Jets to win a grinder.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
