The New England Patriots dynasty ended after the 2019-20 season. Since then, the Buffalo Bills have sat on the Pigskin Throne of the AFC East every year. But before the 2022-23 season starts, the Miami Dolphins hired the mad genius Mike McDaniel to concoct an elixir to take the team to the Promised Land.
And the results were instantaneous.
In the year before his arrival, the Dolphins threw for 3,936 yards and scored a combined 39 touchdowns, ranking 18th and 20th, respectively. After his arrival, the Dolphins vaulted to fourth in passing yards with 4,765 and ninth in total touchdowns with 46. However, Miami finished with a record of 9-8, five games back of the Bills in the AFC East.
Last season, the Dolphins and Bills finished with identical 11-6 records. Miami finished second in the league with 4,698 passing yards and first with 61 total touchdowns.
The steady progression has been impressive for Miami, and McDaniel continues to innovate and figure out ways to get from Point A to End Zone optimally. Step 1: Get players who run really fast. Step 2: Get fast players into spaces of the defense where they can run really fast. Step 3: Use motion to help the quarterback identify defenses and prohibit really fast players from being unable to run fast. Step 4: Get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand quickly. Step 5: Acquire more really fast players in the offseason. Step 6: Profit.
The Bills haven’t been sitting on their laurels, though, as they see this Dolphins team leaping out the water like an Olympic triple-jumper, eyes solely focused on the landing point ahead.
Buffalo used to be in the upper third of the league in terms of passing rate. Last season, the Bills were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league and reconfigured their wide receiver depth chart in the offseason accordingly. In Week 1, the Bills utilized 12 personnel on 22 plays, the same number as in 11 personnel, per Next Gen Stats.
In Mike McDaniel’s debut season, Miami won the first head-to-head matchup against the Bills, 21-19. Since then, the Bills have won four straight, with the most recent game a 21-14 victory in January.
This is a fascinating matchup because both teams know each other well, but they made adjustments in the offseason. In addition, it’s early in the season on a short week, so the range of outcomes is wide.
Buffalo played an Arizona Cardinals offense with a dual-threat quarterback in Week 1, which put up 28 points on them. Tua Tagovailoa is definitely not that. Miami played a Jacksonville Jaguars team that played man coverage 57.5% of the time and blitzed 22.5% in Week 1. The Bills played zone coverage 76.3% of the time in Week 1 and zone 79.3% of the time in their Week 18 matchup last season while blitzing only once.
Per DK Sportsbook, this game opened with the Bills +1.5 and -105 on the money line. The total opened at 51. Since then, the spread has moved to Bills +2.5 and the money line to +114. The total has dropped to 48.5.
There is 56% of the handle and 59% of the bets are on Miami -2.5. There is 53% of the handle, but only 34% of the bets are on the over. There is 51% of the handle and 51% of the bets are on the Miami money line.
There is an important injury to monitor for this contest. Raheem Mostert has been ruled out, while De’Von Achane ($9,600 Showdown) is a game-time decision. Stay informed of the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Thursday Kickoff Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (BUF @ MIA)
Captain’s Picks
Josh Allen ($16,500 CP): There is no other option for me at CPT tonight. Allen is the Alpha, Omega and every other Greek letter in the alphabet for the Bills. In the English alphabet, he would be S for Superman. He leaps over piled-up scrums, skirts around defensive walls and throws darts deftly through secondaries. If the Bills score, Allen will likely have a hand in it. Most, if not all, the passing touchdowns will come from his arm. On the ground, James Cook ($9,000) and Ray Davis ($3,600) are definitely in play to rush one in, but the probabilities favor Allen calling his own number. In Week 1, he had 10 red zone opportunities. He scored twice on the ground and, per Next Gen Stats, had a 77.8% success rate on seven of his rushes.
UTIL Plays
Mack Hollins ($1,600): The Bills aren’t likely to throw the ball too much unless the Dolphins have an offensive explosion. Even so, the target distribution will likely be evenly spread out since there is no longer an Alpha in the receiving room in Buffalo. In Week 1, Keon Coleman ($5,800) and Dalton Kincaid ($7,200) ran 22 and 21 routes, leading the team. Four other players ran 12, 16, 14 and 18 routes. Coleman led the Bills with five targets, while seven others had at least two targets. Hollins caught all two of his targets in Week 1 for 25 yards and a touchdown. He’s super cheap and has as good a chance as anyone else to score.
De’Von Achane ($9,600): Achane is questionable and a game-time decision, so make sure he’s active. The red cross next to his name will likely keep the ownership down, and there’s obviously a ton of risk. The risk/reward ratio seems worth it because he could break the slate. We know he’s fast, and Mostert is out, but his usage in the passing game made me smile from ear to ear. In Week 1, he ran 22 routes and hauled in all seven of his targets for 76 yards, lining up across the entire formation. Achane also led the team with 10 carries, had three red zone opportunities and punched one in from the one-yard line. I think most will flock to Tyreek Hill ($11,600), and for good reason, because he will get peppered with targets, but the Bills have done a good job against him in the past.
Dalton Kincaid ($7,200): Kincaid only caught one of his two targets for 11 yards in Week 1. But he ran 21 routes, the second-most on the team and had one red zone opportunity. He’s at a weird price point, as Jaylen Waddle ($8,600) is the next player priced above him, while Khalil Shakir ($6,200) and Keon Coleman ($5,800) are much cheaper, which will likely keep his ownership somewhat muted.
Fades
Tyreek Hill ($11,600): This is a tough one, and I went back and forth. Hill will be one of the highest-rostered players on the slate, getting fed a ton of targets and always in play to break the slate. I think Hill will have a good, not great, game, which would make a fade very viable. Buffalo is going to play zone and likely double Hill. Here are Hill’s last four games against the Bills: seven catches for 82 yards and a touchdown, three catches for 58 yards, nine catches for 69 yards and a touchdown, and two catches for 33 yards.
THE OUTCOME
I think this is going to be a relatively low-scoring game. The Bills will run the ball successfully while forcing the Dolphins to matriculate down the field.
Final Score: Bills 24, Dolphins 20
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Thursday Kickoff Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (BUF @ MIA)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
