The true madness of college football arrived in Week 2. Notre Dame set the bar for the biggest upset of the season after being stunned by Northern Illinois in front of their home crowd. Texas also put forth a convincing performance against Michigan to truly announce their presence this season.
These, along with many other notable game results, directly impacted the Heisman race. While there is plenty of football still to be played, the DraftKings Sportsbook futures markets are already reacting to the play that is being produced on the field.
Here is a breakdown of the leading candidates and the notable line movement that has been seen thus far.
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas (+600)
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has officially grabbed control of the sole position in the Heisman race. The Longhorns produced a statement victory, defeating the defending champion Michigan Wolverines 31-12. Ewers impressed in the victory, completing 24 of his 36 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns.
Ewers held +1200 odds to win the Heisman entering the season but saw this number drop to +1400 following the first week. The rise to being the Heisman favorite at +600 is significant but expected based on the result. There is a real chance Texas’ commanding victory over Michigan ends up being one of the best wins in all of college football this year when everything settles.
He will need to keep his foot on the gas, but Ewers has taken a significant step forward in his development this year. Texas still has matchups against Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M, so the season is far from over. But Ewers has impressed early on and put himself in the inside position to win the award if he maintains this level of play.
Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss (+850)
Ole Miss football has produced a ridiculous 128 points through the first two games of the season. Though the level of competition will be much tougher than the matchups against Middle Tennessee State and Furman in which they kicked their season off against, Ole Miss has looked as impressive as they possibly could, and Jaxson Dart has been at the heart of it for the team.
Most recently, Dart threw for 377 passing yards with one touchdown through the air and one with his legs. In the two games he has played, Dart has thrown for 795 total yards and six touchdowns without an interception. He has also added two touchdowns on the ground.
Dart was a notable riser after Week 1. He held +1400 Heisman odds before the opening game, climbed to +950 after the victory, and now sits at +800. Ole Miss still has yet to play a ranked opponent and the true tests are on the horizon. But Dart has checked all the boxes he can so far and will be looking to continue this momentum moving forward.
Cam Ward, QB, Miami (+800)
Another quarterback on the rise, Cam Ward has exceeded early expectations at Miami by a major margin. The Washington State transfer made a huge statement in his debut by taking down cross-state rival Florida at the Swamp in a convincing 41-17 win. Ward and Miami then followed this up by defeating Florida A&M 56-9.
Through the opening two games of the season, Ward has completed 75.4% of his passes for 689 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. He has also added a rushing touchdown with his legs.
Entering the year, Ward held +1500 odds of winning the Heisman and saw this drop to +1000 after the opening week victory. He now holds the second-best odds in college football at +800 and will look to keep this pace of play moving forward.
Carson Beck, QB, Georgia (+1000)
The first quarterback to be moving in the wrong direction in terms of odds is Carson Beck. The Georgia quarterback entered the season with +800 odds to win the Heisman. Following Georgia’s opening week victory over Clemson, he dropped to +900. Beck and Georgia then took down Tennessee Tech 48-3 this week, but Beck still saw his Heisman odds drop to +1000.
If you’re a Carson Beck believer, it’s not time to panic. This movement simply has to do with the schedule and his Heisman moment will still be in front of him if he is to have it. On the field, Beck has been solid. The senior has thrown for 520 yards and seven touchdowns without throwing an interception yet. The game script has not required Beck to be special, and Georgia has not had either game in jeopardy at any point. The next games on the schedule include Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Texas, Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee, so we’ll find out what Beck and Georgia are truly made of.
Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon (+1100)
A player about whom there should be some more concern is Dillon Gabriel. The Oregon standout entered the season with +600 odds to win the Heisman. In the opening game of the season, Oregon defeated Idaho 24-14 in an uninspiring win. Gabriel saw his Heisman odds slip to +700 as a result. This week, Oregon squeaked out a 37-34 victory over Boise State, which further dropped the quarterback’s odds to +1100.
On the field, Gabriel has thrown for 623 yards and four touchdowns in the two games. He has also added a score on the ground. While Gabriel’s 84.3% completion percentage is impressive, his arm strength has underwhelmed through the opening two games. Oregon has not looked like the dynamic team it is expected to be, with Gabriel as one of the primary reasons why. There is still plenty of football to be played with more important matchups on the horizon, but it has not been an impressive start to the season for the Oregon quarterback.
Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama (+1200)
The Alabama Crimson Tide produced an impressive 63-0 victory over Western Kentucky to kick off the college football season. Jalen Milroe combined for 279 yards and five touchdowns between his arm and legs in the matchup and saw his Heisman odds shift from +1400 to +1200. Milroe had similar success in the second week of the season, leading Alabama to a 42-16 victory over South Florida. Milroe threw for 194 yards and two touchdowns and picked up a pair of touchdowns on the ground as well.
Milroe’s Heisman odds remain at +1200 following the second week. With matchups against Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and LSU still to come, there will be more clarity about what Milroe and this Alabama team are made of. While the early signs have been mostly encouraging, the questions surrounding Milroe have not been answered yet.
Nico Iamaleava, QB, Tennessee (+1200)
There was plenty of preseason hype surrounding Nico Iamaleava, and he has lived up to it. Through two games, he has thrown for 525 passing yards, five touchdowns and a pair of interceptions while adding one rushing touchdown and 71 yards on the ground. However, Tennessee has yet to face the difficult portion of its schedule. In their opening two games, the Volunteers defeated Chattanooga and NC State by a combined score of 120-13.
Iamaleava started the season with +1500 Heisman odds, which moved to +1200 after the opening week. The Tennessee standout then dropped to +1300 after his second victory. This is another situation in which we will know much more about his candidacy when the Volunteers get to the meat of their schedule. Regardless, it is tough not to be impressed by the redshirt freshman’s success early on.
Miller Moss, QB, USC (+1800)
The most significant line movement from any Heisman hopeful this week was seen with USC standout Miller Moss. After leading the team to a 27-20 victory over LSU in the opening week, USC produced a 48-0 blowout over Utah State in Week 2. Moss entered the year with +3500 odds ahead of Week 1, which did not change before Week 2. Following the blowout victory, Moss’ Heisman odds were nearly cut in half, and he now sits at +1800 odds to take home the prestigious trophy.
In the two games that Moss has played, he has completed 72.7% of his passes for 607 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While the Trojans are off this week, there will be a notable shift in these odds again next week as USC is set to face off against Michigan. This likely will be a true statement game for both sides.
Other Notable Line Movement:
- Will Howard (Ohio State): +1500 -> +1600 -> +2000
- Riley Leonard (Notre Dame): +2200 -> +3000 -> +8000
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): +2200 -> +2500 -> +2800
- Avery Johnson (Kansas State): +2500 -> +2500 -> +4000
- Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): +3500 -> +2200 -> +8000
- Conner Weigman (Texas A&M): +3000 -> +5500 -> +6500
- Travis Hunter (Colorado): +5000 -> +2500 -> +5000
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
