The Saturday WNBA slate consists of only two games, but it’s an intriguing one, to say the least. The top two teams in the Eastern Conference—the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun—will square off at Barclays Center. Meanwhile, Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever will face the league’s best defensive squad, the Minnesota Lynx, on the night her idol, Maya Moore, is being honored with a jersey retirement. There are plenty of possibilities regarding WNBA bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Below, is a look at my top bets for Saturday’s WNBA betting card, along with analysis based on recent trends and player strength.
Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty
Total Under 157 -108
With the Connecticut Sun being on the second night of a back-to-back coming off a hard-fought 82-80 home victory against the Chicago Sky, the New York Liberty have the rest advantage in addition to benefiting from the game being held at Barclays Center. Sabrina Ionescu has dealt with a neck injury and while she went through shootaround this morning. Both of these teams are elite defensively. It’s reasonable to view this as the makings of a lower-scoring matchup.
While it may be a simplistic perspective, reviewing the three games of the season has some value. Connecticut has averaged only 72.3 points against New York while conversely, the Liberty has scored 78.3 points per game in this matchup. A combined average scoring total of 150.6 would put this game in the under territory.
Connecticut Sun Moneyline +260
If you are among those who believe the Sun are due to take down the Liberty after entering Saturday’s matchup down 3-0 in the season series, the +260 odds are favorable to take. Marina Mabrey, who was acquired in a midseason trade, has yet to participate in a showdown against the Liberty. Perhaps her shooting and complementary skill set can prove to be a difference-making addition.
However, there are certainly a few ways to look at every matchup…
New York Liberty -7.5 Spread -108
It’d be reasonable to expect the Liberty to pull out a victory against the Sun. However, again, the moneyline (-325) doesn’t offer strong value. If that looks good enough to you, by all means. Otherwise, if you want to take a riskier option, perhaps consider betting against the spread (-7.5). There’s more to consider than just a win or loss, but New York has won nine of its previous 10 outings, while winning seven consecutive games as a team locked into a successful identity around Breanna Stewart, Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, among other talented players as arguably the deepest team in the WNBA. This is a great team firing with plenty of momentum.
Remember, the Liberty will be attempting to protect home-court against an opponent playing the second night of a back-to-back that flew in town from Chicago. Additionally, the Sun has experimented with the starting lineup and combinations recently. This is a team trying to fully optimize the talent of this group by figuring out what works best before the playoffs.
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx
Caitlin Clark 19.5+ Points (+100)
There hasn’t been a team better defensively in the WNBA this season than the Minnesota Lynx. However, there are few players that have played at the level of Caitlin Clark lately. She’s scored 23 or more points in each of her three previous performances despite averaging an incredible 12.7 assists over this span. However, the last instance Clark had in which she failed to hit the 20-point mark was actually a road matchup against the Lynx on July 17—totaling 17 points on a tough 5-of-17 shooting night overall while going 2-of-11 from beyond the arc.
In that recent matchup, Minnesota frequently opted to go under in pick-and-roll, with the goal of minimizing how often Clark could attack the paint with an advantage while sending the low defender to pressure. With the on-ball defender often going under, she had short windows with space to let it fly on deep pull-up jumpers but her shot was off.
The bet here would be that the Lynx concede these looks again and Clark punishes them. Otherwise, perhaps Minnesota adjusts the scheme and you’re confident Clark figures it out anyway.
Napheesa Collier 12+ Rebounds (+365)
If you have a risk tolerance and a goal of betting on something with more upside, believers in Napheesa Collier’s ability to gear up for another active night on the boards despite being on the second night of a back-to-back may want to look into this.
Collier is coming off a performance against the Las Vegas Aces featuring 18 rebounds and became the third player in WNBA history to outbound the entire opposing team. Her season average (10.2) is a bit below the 12 threshold, but she’s shown capable of putting together some high-volume nights in this area. She’s racked up 12 or more rebounds in nine times across 34 games played this season, with another four outings featuring just one shy of hitting this figure.
The Fever will surely emphasize getting a body on Collier early to avoid allowing her to have a repeat performance of what she did against the Aces. The hope for this prop would be that Indiana cools off shooting the basketball after a recent hot streak, allowing for no shortage of potential defensive rebounds for Collier to grab. Coming off a strange six-day layoff period, perhaps Indiana’s rhythm will be impacted. Well, or not. That’s your call.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is grant-afseth) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
