The NFL season is rapidly approaching, which means it’s time to dive into some serious fantasy football research to ensure you make the right selections.
Between DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports and Pick6, there is no shortage of fun ways to operate a season-long team, leveraging strategy on a week-by-week basis.
Drafting a wide receiver involves more than just picking big names, but it certainly doesn’t hurt if you’re able to leverage your draft position to take one. Otherwise, having some alternative options at your disposal can go a long way in fielding a balanced team.
Let’s take a look at some of the top receivers in the league, next-tier options, and some boom-or-bust options to consider.
The Top WR Picks
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb is coming off a spectacular 2023 season with the Dallas Cowboys where he emerged as one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football. He hauled in 135 catches generating over 1,700 receiving yards and 14 total touchdowns, making him a dominant force, particularly in the red zone.
That said, there are some reasons for caution as we look ahead to 2024. Historically, wide receivers who lead the league in red-zone targets tend to experience a decline in fantasy production the following year. Over the past dozen seasons, no wide receiver who topped the red-zone target list has managed to finish higher than WR3 in the subsequent season. Moreover, the Cowboys’ offensive approach in the red zone last year, with a negative pass rate over expectation, suggests a potential shift toward more rushing touchdowns, which could limit Lamb’s opportunities.
Additionally, Lamb’s current contract holdout adds a layer of uncertainty to his outlook. While Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has indicated that negotiations are progressing, there’s still no deal in place as the season opener against the Cleveland Browns on Sept. 8 draws near. Fantasy managers should monitor this situation closely, as it could impact Lamb’s availability and performance in the early part of the season.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill enters the season coming off a remarkable year where he finished as the second-highest scoring wide receiver with nearly 300 fantasy points, averaging just under 20 points per game. Hill’s explosiveness was on full display as he amassed 1,799 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, leading the NFL with an impressive 3.72 yards per route run. Despite reaching the age of 30, Hill’s performance indicates he remains at the peak of his abilities, making him a top-tier option for fantasy managers.
Last season, the Miami Dolphins made it clear they were intent on maximizing Hill’s talent, with Tua Tagovailoa recently acknowledging that the team was “trying to feed him the ball” to help Hill reach the elusive 2,000-yard mark. An ankle injury late in the season prevented Hill from reaching that milestone, Hill still set a Dolphins franchise record with 1,799 receiving yards, which is also the seventh-highest single-season total in NFL history.
Hill has since admitted that as a team leader, he’s shifted his focus to more on team success, with his eyes set on helping the Dolphins win a playoff game and ultimately pursue a Super Bowl. For fantasy managers, this shift in mindset might suggest a more balanced offensive approach for the Dolphins, potentially impacting Hill’s individual stats. However, given his exceptional talent and feature role in Miami’s offense, Hill remains a top fantasy wide receiver.
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase is primed to be the centerpiece of the Bengals’ offense in 2024, coming off a season where he tallied 100 receptions and over 1,200 yards. Despite finishing as WR11 in 2023, Chase’s potential was evident, particularly when paired with Joe Burrow, as he averaged 16.4 points per game and displayed dominance in the red zone, leading the NFL in targets per game over the past two seasons. If everything goes accordingly and he reaches his potential, he could face realize a WR1 finish.
However, Chase’s “hold-in” for a new contract casts some uncertainty over his start to the season. While the Bengals have downplayed the situation, the possibility of Chase missing time or being less focused is a concern for fantasy managers. Despite this, his connection with Burrow and his role in the offense makes him a high-upside option, assuming the contract situation is resolved before the season kicks off.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson remains a top fantasy option heading into 2024, coming off a 2023 season where he finished 5th in points per game despite missing seven games and losing Kirk Cousins to injury. Even with the challenges, Jefferson tallied 68 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and 5 touchdowns. His ability to thrive, even with backup quarterbacks, averaging 20.2 points per game post-Cousins, underscores his elite status.
With Sam Darnold stepping in as QB1 after J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending injury, Jefferson’s role as the focal point of the Minnesota Vikings’ offense remains secure. His confidence in Darnold and proven ability to transcend underwhelming quarterback talent make him a safe bet for continued high production, solidifying his standing as one of the NFL’s top receivers.
Next tier options
There are plenty of options to consider outside of the “Tier 1” options at wide receiver. However, some choices certainly appear to be safer than others, meaning it’ll take some consideration and risk assessment to determine which is best suited for any particular team.
These names each have strong projections for the 2024 season:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions)
- A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)
- Puka Nacka (Los Angeles Rams)
- Garrett Wilson (New York Jets)
- Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (Arizona Cardinals)
- Deebo Samuel Sr. (San Francisco 49ers)
- Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Drake London (Atlanta Falcons)
- Nico Collins (Houston Texans)
- Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints)
- DK Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks)
When looking at total fantasy points from 2023, some of the top names on this list were among league leaders, including Amon-Ra St. Brown (330.9), Puka Nacua (298.5), and A.J. Brown (289.6), to name a few. Regardless of draft positioning, there aren’t many ways to go wrong, but there’s plenty to weigh.
There are plenty of factors to consider when making wide-receiver draft selections. Target share is a fundamental metric—receivers who command a significant portion of their team’s passing attempts are typically reliable producers over the long term. The quality of the quarterback is also pivotal; elite quarterbacks can elevate a receiver’s fantasy value, while less consistent passers may limit it. Understanding the team’s offensive scheme is equally important, as wide receivers in pass-heavy offenses tend to have higher ceilings.
Red zone usage is another critical factor, with receivers frequently targeted near the goal line more likely to accumulate touchdowns, essential for sustained fantasy success. Consistency is also key, as steady performers are often safer picks, particularly in the early rounds, helping maintain steady scoring throughout the season.
Other considerations include injury history, competition for targets, and strength of schedule, all of which can impact a wide receiver’s outlook over the course of the season. Planning around bye weeks is also advisable to avoid being left with limited options at a pivotal time.
Boom or bust options to consider
Given how much talent there is at the quarterback position, there is value in waiting until late in the draft. These names are a bit more high-risk/high-reward but can give you the inside track on winning your fantasy football league if you get it right.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
Diontae Johnson demonstrated his ability to remain productive despite the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive changes and his own injury setbacks. He finished the 2023 season with 152.7 fantasy points, ranking 44th in points per game with an average of 11.7. Now with the Carolina Panthers, he is expected to be a primary target in an offense that helped Adam Thielen revitalize some of his impact.
With Bryce Young under center, Johnson projects as at least a solid WR3 in fantasy leagues, with the potential to exceed expectations if Young can take a significant step forward in his development. Johnson’s volume in Carolina’s offense positions him as a reliable fantasy option with room for upside.
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Stefon Diggs is coming off a challenging 2023 campaign that saw him finish as the WR9 overall but with a dip in consistency. Now with the Houston Texans, Diggs faces uncertainty in his role, especially with emerging competition from Tank Dell and Nico Collins.
As he enters his age-31 season, fantasy managers may need to approach Diggs with caution, recognizing both his potential for high volume and the risks associated with his recent decline in production. While he still possesses the talent to be a significant contributor, the surrounding circumstances suggest a more tempered outlook.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley enters the season as the Tennessee Titans’ clear WR1, primed for a potential increase in production. Last year with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Ridley recorded 76 catches for 1,016 yards and 8 touchdowns, finishing as the WR18 overall. Now in a more pass-focused offense under new head coach Brian Callahan, Ridley is set to be the primary target for quarterback Will Levis. It’s certainly a risk worth considering the boom potential.
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