UFC 305 is taking place in Perth, Australia on Saturday, August 17, and, unlike the last UFC Pay-Per-View, this one starts at a reasonable time for the locals (Main Card starts at 10:00 am local time). The main event features the return of Israel Adesanya, coming off the worst performance of his UFC career as a massive favorite against Sean Strickland, versus Dricus Du Plessis who ultimately dethroned Strickland one fight later. Adesanya has avenged each of his other two career losses with a victory in the immediate fight following and this will be Du Plessis’ first-ever UFC Middleweight title defense. Bad blood has been brewing between these two for quite some time so emotions should be running high leading into this fight.
UFC 305 Best Bets
Mateusz Gamrot by Decision (-160)
Fifth-ranked lightweight Mateusz Gamrot will attempt to win his fourth straight fight in the third to last fight of the evening against 11th-ranked Daniel Hooker. Four of Gamrot’s last five fights have gone to decision which does coincide with an uptick in quality of opponent. The one outlier during that span was a fight versus Rafael Fiziev that ended in a freak leg injury from stepping wrong after a failed front kick. In other words, that fight easily could have ended in a decision as well if not for the unlikely scenario that occurred.
Meanwhile, Hooker reinforced the fact he possesses a chin of steel by posting photos of an orbital fracture (and broken wrist) following his win over Jalin Turner at UFC 290. Since joining the UFC, only Edson Barboza, Michael Chandler and Arnold Allen have knocked Hooker out, and Islam Makhachev is the only one to finish him via submission. The last rangy fighter Gamrot fought (Jalin Turner) knocked him down once and landed 11 more significant strikes. Expect a similar setup in this fight with Gamrot resorting to wrestling once he realizes Hooker is able to land strikes from an uncomfortably far distance. Gamrot will then resort to laying on Hooker as long as he can (four-plus takedowns in six of his last seven fights again with the Fiziev fight being the outlier) and will likely rely on edging out victory via decision once again.
Tom Nolan by KO/Steve Erceg ML Parlay (-114)
Tom Nolan was gifted the UFC version of a “gimme” when he was booked against Alex Reyes. Prior to Reyes’ first-round knockout loss to Charlie Campbell in September of last year (2023), Reyes had not fought since September of 2017 (and lost via first-round knockout to Mike Perry in that fight). On paper, the 13-4 record is not bad, but this level of inactivity cannot be overstated. Reyes looked rusty against an up-and-coming youngster nearly a year ago and it is reasonable to expect more of the same against a promising young Nolan.
Unlike the Nolan part of the parlay, the Steve Erceg leg is not going to be as easy. Following a five-round battle that many would argue Erceg barely lost versus Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, he will face another tough challenge in fourth-ranked Flyweight Kai Kara-France. In this matchup, Erceg will own a four-inch height advantage, which is an advantage he put to use against the champion Pantoja; Erceg landed 14 more head strikes in that fight and two of the judges saw the fight as a complete toss-up heading into Round 5 (which all three judges scored for the champ). Erceg proved in that fight he can compete with the best of the best and possesses the skills to be champion with just a bit of refining. Kara-France has a victory versus a former champion on his resume (Cody Garbrandt) but is 0-4 against the top three rankings in the division and has been finished twice by that group…and that is before his exhibition loss to Pantoja in the Ultimate Fighter Season 24. The main reason to like Erceg is due to the fact that Pantoja won the fight with control time via nine takedowns and Kara-France has never taken an opponent down more than two times in any of his UFC fights. In fact, he has landed a total of three takedowns in his last eight fights combined. Without that tool in his toolset, which is one Pantoja used to squeak out a victory, then Kara-France is in trouble striking against the larger fighter for three rounds.
Israel Adesanya/Dricus Du Plessis Under 4.5 Rounds (-120)
The dialogue may get ugly and downright bizarre for the Main Event, both in the press conferences and through social posts, but the talk is nowhere as ugly as Dricus Du Plessis would like to make this fight in the ring. Du Plessis’ style is always up in his opponents’ faces and in quite an unorthodox manner. Du Plessis knocked out the likes of Darren Till, Derek Brunson and Robert Whittaker prior to defeating Sean Strickland in a five-round war that went to decision. On the other hand, Israel Adesanya lost to Strickland the last time he stepped into the Octagon, as he admittedly never really was able to get going and was nearly knocked out at the end of the first round. Although Adesanya does not possess the reputation of a powerful middleweight, 67 percent of his professional wins have come via knockout versus 33 percent of his wins via decision. Both fighters are coming off decisions that skew the masses towards the projection of a decision in this fight..and that could be a mistake. Not only does Adesanya’s body look revamped but he is coming off a battle with a fighter who was constantly pressuring him. Stylistically, Adesanya should be able to adjust, as he has many times in the past, and that should lead to a much more active guy in the striking department versus Du Plessis who loves a dog fight. In the middleweight division, that often leads to someone going down, and the judges not being necessary in the end.
Place your UFC bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
