Alabama is generally a team I’m backing in futures markets, but this season obviously introduces a lot of curveballs. The Tide are accustomed to a win total somewhere in the 10.5 to 11.5 neighborhood, but the retirement of Nick Saban, along with turnover to the roster, shook things up. Post-Saban, ‘Bama’s odds to win it all shifted from +600 all the way to +1400. The win total sits with plus-money to the over on 9.5. I had to chew on this one for a bit, but now it’s almost a buy-low situation. We just have to find the right markets to attack on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alabama to Make the College Football Playoff: YES (+100 ) — 1.5-units
While this isn’t the same Crimson Tide squad we saw dominate the Saban era, it’s still a damn good team. For the 15th consecutive season, Alabama is ranked top-5 in the Preseason AP Top-25 Poll. It probably wouldn’t be a College Football Playoff team under the old format, but the shift to 12 teams gives us a lot of room here — particularly with 4-5 teams from the SEC projected to make the CFP field. Kalen DeBoer is a fantastic coach, leading Michael Penix Jr. and his Washington squad to a 14-1 season, ending in a loss in the National Championship game to Michigan. DeBoer will get the most out of Jalen Milroe this season, who is an electric dual-threat QB. DeBoer also has a much more capable defense with this current roster than he did last season with the Huskies.
In my conversation with Phil Steele, he mentioned that he thought the win total for Alabama should have been 10.5. That’s a bit bullish, even for myself. However, the floor for ‘Bama feels like a 9-3 season, with 10 wins a very realistic outcome as well. I’m not going to try and peg what number the win total lands on, but I think the market is off in terms of the chances to reach the CFP. If Alabama wins 10 games, it’ll get into the CFP. That said, there’s also a clear path for a 9-3 team to have a good chance. Coming out of the mighty SEC, if the Tide goes 9-3 with losses to Georgia, at Oklahoma and at LSU, that’s a really solid season. I see that as worthy of one of the final 12 spots in the field, making the “Yes” option to reach the CFP the best future on ‘Bama.
Most Regular Season Wins Matchup: Alabama (-140) over Michigan — 1-unit
I already shared my take on Michigan this season, with my bet being on the Wolverines to miss the CFP. The easy analysis here is that ‘Bama is ranked higher than Michigan, and if I’m betting the Tide to make the CFP and the Wolverines to miss, obviously they will be better. But different conferences mean different schedules, so it’s not apples to apples. But as I explained in my article about Michigan, I feel 9-3 is the ceiling for the defending champs. As I wrote above, 9-3 feels like a floor for Alabama.
Maybe we wind up pushing this one if it’s the perfect storm. But there are a lot more realistic outcomes within this season that I feel give ‘Bama the edge to win more games here. Alabama has held strong with a win total of 9.5, and 95% of the handle is on the Tide to reach the CFP at DraftKings Sportsbook. Michigan has seen its win total plummet down to 9-flat, and even some 8.5’s in the market. The Wolverines also have 90% of the handle on them to miss the CFP at DraftKings Sportsbook. The market is clearly telling us who the better team is. While it’s still early (August 13), and this hasn’t been a heavily bet market thus far, Michigan has not received a single bet. 100% of the bets for 100% of the handle are on ‘Bama. Read my article on Michigan if you want to see why they are a fade for me.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
