College football is just around the corner. I’ve been writing up my favorite plays on DraftKings Sportsbook all summer, and will be ramping up my content as the season approaches. But one benchmark that bettors may want to take note of heading into each season is the initial AP Top-25 Poll, which came out on August 12.
Here’s a look at the AP Top-25, alongside their odds to win the College Football Playoff on DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Georgia (+300)
- Ohio State (+380)
- Oregon (+750)
- Texas (+850)
- Alabama (+1400)
- Ole Miss (+1400)
- Notre Dame (+2200)
- Penn State (+2200)
- Michigan (+3500)
- Florida State (+2800)
- Missouri (+4000)
- Utah (+5500)
- LSU (+2000)
- Clemson (+4500)
- Tennessee (+3500)
- Oklahoma (+7000)
- Oklahoma State (+15000)
- Kansas State (+6500)
- Miami FL (+5000)
- Texas A&M (+4000)
- Arizona (+20000)
- Kansas (+20000)
- USC (+8000)
- NC State (+13000)
- Iowa (+25000)
My initial takeaway is that the AP Poll appropriately captured the four teams we all feel are the best entering the season, and the odds reflect that. Georgia received 46 of the first place votes, while Ohio State finished with 15 votes in a distant second. The only other team to receive a single first place vote was Oregon.
As Brett McMurphy of The Action Network points out, 18 of the last 20 seasons have ended with a champion that began the season ranked in the top-seven. This year, that would mean the cutoff for a worthwhile bet to win it all would be Notre Dame at +2200. However, with the College Football Playoff expanded from four to 12 teams in the field, this would be the year to buck the trend and fire on a long-shot.
We also want to look at the poll and try and use it to find out who could be over or under-ranked entering the season. Two “contenders” jumped out there. The defending champs might be getting a little bit too much love, as they rank No. 9 overall, but are 35-1 to win it all. Then there’s LSU, which sits at 20-1 despite a ranking of No. 13. Oddsmakers seem higher on the Tigers, as they actually have better odds to win it all than six teams ranked ahead of them in the AP Poll.
Here are some other interesting tidbits about the AP Top-25 from McMurphy’s timeline:
- Only two of the last 20 No. 1 ranked teams in the preseason AP Top-25 have gone on to win it all (USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017).
- Over 20 of the last 21 seasons there has been a preseason AP Top-25 team that finished the season unranked (in 2019 it didn’t happen and last season it was No. 6 USC).
- In 28 of the last 30 seasons there has been a team that was not ranked in the preseason AP Top-25 that finished the season ranked in the Top-10 (didn’t happen in 2011 or 2020, but last season it was Missouri).
- Texas had a preseason AP Top-5 ranking in 2010 — the Longhorns went on the finish the season unranked.
- Alabama is ranked preseason AP Top-5 for the 15th consecutive season — the last time ‘Bama was ranked exactly No. 5 was 2009 and went on to win it all.
Place your College Football bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
