The Boston Red Sox (71-66) look to kickstart an AL Wild Card run as they take on the Tampa Bay Rays (83-54) in the first game of a crucial three-game series on Monday, September 4. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET from Tropicana Field. Rookie righty Brayan Bello (10-8, 3.57 ERA) will take the mound for the Red Sox, while Aaron Civale (7-3, 2.64) gets the ball for the Rays.
Tampa enters as -135 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Boston coming in at +114. The run total is set at 8.
Red Sox-Rays picks: Monday, September 4
Injury report
Red Sox
Out: RP Brennan Bernardino (health & safety), OF Jarren Duran (left toe contusion), INF Pablo Reyes (left elbow inflammation), SP/RP Corey Kluber (right shoulder inflammation), RP Zack Kelly (right elbow surgery)
Rays
Out: RP Jason Adam (oblique), OF Manuel Margot (elbow)
Starting pitchers
Brayan Bello vs. Aaron Civale
Bello has had his ups and downs in August, but his road performances have been successful for the most part. In his latest road start, he held the Astros to one run in seven innings. (However, he also allowed nine hits.) Before that, he conceded six hits and just a single run on the road against the Yankees. Earlier this season, Bello let up three earned runs in six innings against the Rays, recording five strikeouts.
Civale allowed seven hits and two earned runs in his latest start as he faced Miami. He also recorded five strikeouts. In his most recent home start, he allowed three earned runs in five innings against the Rockies, striking out nine. Earlier this season, when he faced the Red Sox, Civale — then with the Guardians — allowed two earned runs in 5.2 innings.
Over/Under pick
Two solid pitchers come to the mound, but both offenses rank in the top eight in runs per game in MLB. This is going to be close, but I think run prevention will win out in this exciting AL East battle.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline pick
The Red Sox pulled off two of three against the Royals in their latest series, while the Rays dropped two of three against the Guardians. I like Boston as a road underdog here. The Rays’ momentum may have just taken a hit in Cleveland, and Bello and the rest of the Boston defense have excelled on the road throughout the past month.
Pick: Red Sox +114