Opening Day is one of my favorite days of the year. However, the second day of the MLB regular season is sometimes a bit of a let down. All that waiting for baseball to come back, then your team immediately has a day off? Bit of a bummer.
Still, there’s eight games on tonight’s featured slate. That’s more than enough. Let’s dive in.
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PITCHER
Stud
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies, $9,400 – There isn’t a lot of elite pitching upside at the top-end of this slate, so let’s invest in the stability of Kelly. The RHP has been quite solid the last two seasons, posting a 3.33 ERA and a 3.74 FIP across 63 starts. Also, specific to 2023, Kelly saw his strikeout rate spike to a career-best 25.9%. He’s probably a little bit better than you think he is and he’ll draw one of the best possible matchups on Friday: The Rockies outside Coors. Colorado had four hits and scored just a single run on Opening Day. I expect a similar result against Kelly.
Value
Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, $7,400 – Speaking of teams that struggled to produce runs on Thursday, let’s analyze the Athletics, who were shut out in their first game of the season. Now, some of that is the greatness of Shane Bieber, yet some of it is also a severe lack of talent. Oakland finished up 2023 with the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.1%) and its second-lowest wOBA (.293). I don’t think much has changed in 2024. Meanwhile, Allen pitched to a 3.81 ERA in his rookie campaign and always had elite strikeout rates throughout the minor leagues. The lefty possesses some DFS upside.
INFIELD
Stud
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $6,500 – Betts has a massive price tag on Friday, but I’d be lying if I said he wasn’t worth it. Not only is the All-Star slashing .636/.733/1.273 to start 2024, not only does he hit atop the best lineup in baseball, but Betts absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching last season. In 184 plate appearances within the split, Betts managed an eye-popping 189 wRC+. His .438 expected wOBA when facing LHPs was the fifth-best qualified mark in MLB. In other words, pray for the safety of Zack Thompson ($5,800).
Stud
Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants, $4,600 – First and foremost, let’s work on getting Kim shortstop eligibility, DraftKings. Please and thanks. The Padres crushed left-handed pitching in 2023 and Kim was a big reason why. In his 191 plate appearances within the split, the 28-year-old slashed .302/.376/.521 with a 148 wRC+. For the sake of comparison, Kim posted a .219 ISO against LHPs and just a .100 ISO versus RHPs. You want to be using the infielder in matchups with pitchers like Kyle Harrison ($7,800). Kim also stole 38 bases last season, so he can provide value in a multitude of ways.
Value
Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies, $3,600 – Generally speaking, you want to use Moreno in opposite-hand matchups whenever possible, but I’ll make an exception when the right-hander in question is Cal Quantrill ($6,000). The veteran was among the worst pitchers in baseball last season, posting a 5.85 xERA and a microscopic 13.1% strikeout rate. The Diamondbacks scored 16 runs on Opening Day, and while a repeat performance is highly unlikely, they do possess this slate’s second-highest implied team total. Moreno and the middle of Arizona’s lineup should do some damage.
Value
Conner Joe, Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, $3,000 – We got a clear look at how the Pirates plan to set their lineup against a left-handed starter on Thursday, and they’ll see another southpaw this evening in the form of A.J. Puk ($7,000). Joe was inserted into the leadoff spot and I assume he’ll be there again on Friday. In 2023, in 193 plate appearances within the split, Joe posted an .820 OPS and a 124 wRC+ versus LHPs. With a price tag this low, he obviously carries viability on this slate.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies, $5,800 – Carroll was oddly quiet in that aforementioned 16-run outburst, walking twice and scoring a pair of runs. I think he’ll make some bigger noise on Friday. As you would expect from a young, left-handed bat, Carroll was at his best in 2023 against right-handed pitching. Within the split, the rookie posted a 146 wRC+. On the other side, Quantrill allowed opposing LHBs to combine for an ugly .369 wOBA. As I said, he had a nightmarish time getting outs last season.
Stud
Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $4,900 – Hernandez is an absolute stud when facing a left-handed opponent. Going back to the beginning of 2021, the former Silver Slugger winner is batting .317 with a 164 wRC+ within the split. Even in a down 2023 campaign, Hernandez posted a 120 wRC+ against southpaws. He’s just that consistent. Sadly, Thompson is not as consistent. The LHP was decent last season in a hybrid role, yet he had serious issues pitching away from St. Louis, as evidenced by an inflated 5.88 ERA on the road. Look for the Dodgers to put up some crooked numbers.
Value
Richie Palacios, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $3,100 – In totality, Chris Bassitt ($8,600) was very good for the Blue Jays in 2023, maintaining a 3.60 ERA across 200.0 innings for the club. However, when the veteran RHP struggled, it was often due to an encounter with a left-handed bat. To wit, Bassitt surrendered 2.03 home runs per nine and a .504 slugging percentage to LHBs. By comparison, RHBs compiled just a .310 slugging percentage off the 35-year-old. The Rays don’t currently have as many platoon hitters as usual — Josh Lowe (oblique) and Taylor Walls (hip) are on the IL — but Palacios has shown some pop in his brief time in the majors.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Bat Flip [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
