The course of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s season changed late in the fourth quarter of a matchup against the LA Clippers on October 25, when former All-NBA forward Jalen Williams suffered a fractured and dislocated ankle. That same game, starting shooting guard Cason Wallace tore the labrum in his shoulder, and Chet Holmgren hasn’t played since after undergoing treatment for a partially torn patellar tendon.
Tonight, the two teams will meet for the first time since that nightmarish evening, when LA hosts Oklahoma City in an Emirates NBA Cup West Group B contest, set to begin at 10:30 p.m. ET.
In addition to Wallace, Holmgren, and Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams (back) and Thomas Sorber (knee) remain out for the Thunder, and new starting shooting guard Ajay Mitchell (ankle) is questionable. The Clippers continue to be without Bradley Beal (knee), Brandon Ingram (heel), Nick Martinelli (G-League), Jordan Miller (shoulder), and Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (foot), but none of those players have been much of a factor this season, with Martinelli (22 minutes) the only one who’s suited up at all.
Even with all of its injuries, Oklahoma City is a 7.5-point road favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-283 Moneyline), with the point total set to 222.5. LA is +231 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this NBA Cup group game and offer a prediction.
Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers preview, prediction
Although the Thunder lost two of their first games without Williams, Wallace, and Holmgren, they have bounced back with four wins in their last six games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has continued to produce MVP-level heroics, averaging 29.7 points per game, and Mitchell has stepped up, contributing 18.5 points per game. Oklahoma City has also gotten contributions from less-ballyhooed players, including rookies Aday Mara (8.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Bennett Stirtz (45.5% from deep). In the last nine games, the Thunder still rank 14th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating, so they should still make the playoffs even if Holmgren’s recovery is slower than his eight-to-10-week timeline.
The Clippers were 1-2 after losing the October game to Oklahoma City, and their losing ways have continued, as they’ve gone just 1-6 since to sit 13th in the Western Conference standings. Still, LA has gotten decent enough play from Darius Garland (20.4 points per game on 47-35-82 shooting splits) and from summer signing Rui Hachimura, and it was able to recoup plenty of value from Ivica Zubac in fifth overall pick Keaton Wagler, who’s averaging 12.2 points per game. Gradey Dick and Brook Lopez have both shot the ball well on limited volume. Overall, the Clippers have had the league’s ninth-worst offense and seventh-worst defense, a performance more or less in line with preseason expectations.
Thunder at Clippers pick, best bet
The triple injuries definitely had an impact on Oklahoma City’s driving, as it has actually attempted fewer restricted-area attempts per game and converted its close-range looks at a lower rate than LA has across the last nine games. The Thunder could be in even bigger trouble if Mitchell, who leads the team among healthy players in layups per game, ends up sitting. Oklahoma City should still have an overall advantage in paint play — across the last nine games, it’s limited opponents to a league-low 55.1% conversion rate in the restricted area, while the Clippers have allowed among the most shots and the second-highest mark — but it won’t rack up quite the dominant margin it’s used to. I’m not sure Isaiah Hartenstein and Mara alone can hold opponents to that low a percentage in a larger sample size.
Even in their dominant 2023-2026 run, the Thunder were never an elite rebounding team, but they’ve been better than the Clippers, even in the last nine games. I expect that to sustain itself; Oklahoma City has reacted to Holmgren’s injury by elevating seven-foot-two Mara into the starting lineup, and LA’s centers are either undersized (six-foot-eight Isaiah Jackson) or largely eschew the paint (Brook Lopez). Plus, the Clippers consistently struggle with turnovers, and while the Thunder haven’t been as dangerous in transition this season, I’m still wary of a team that led the league in points off of turnovers in each of the prior three complete seasons. Neither of these teams has been great at getting to the charity stripe as of late, but Oklahoma City has remained extremely disciplined even without its starters.
Since the Thunder’s injuries, they’ve attempted the second-fewest three-pointers per game and connected at the 10th-lowest rate. Meanwhile, LA has connected at the fourth-highest rate across that same span. That’s partially a matter of luck — it’s made its wide-open threes at the highest rate — but it’s also produced more than Oklahoma City has, and the Thunder’s stars aren’t primarily known for their shooting talent in the way Hachimura and Garland are. I also have concerns about Oklahoma City’s defense; over the last nine games, it’s allowed 2.8 more wide-open threes per game than any other team and gotten fortunate that opponents have been the second-least accurate.
Ultimately, the Thunder’s superior rim protection and experience making deep runs in the NBA Cup should carry them through this game, but the fact that the team is missing arguably three of its four best players and still has a record over .500 in that span is a testament to the talent of Gilgeous-Alexander and head coach Mark Daigneault. Oklahoma City can’t continue to rely on getting lucky against shooters with as much talent as Garland, Hachimura, and Dick, and the Intuit Dome has historically provided the Clippers with a pretty notable home-court advantage.
