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Prediction, pick for Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa at UFC Vegas 123

Prediction, pick for Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa at UFC Vegas 123

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

Women’s flyweights collide on Saturday night as Lucia Szabova makes her promotional debut against Tainara Lisboa at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan inside the Meta APEX.

Szabova (12–0, 0–0 UFC) is coming off a dominant run in OKTAGON MMA, capturing gold in two divisions. Lisboa (7–4, 2–2 UFC) returns from a year-long hiatus after a third-round TKO loss to Melissa Croden in October 2025.

Szabova enters as an overwhelming -700 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lisboa is a +500 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa Fight Preview

Lucia Szabova

  • 12–0 (UFC Debut)
  • 4–0 (T)KO
  • 5–0 SUB

Lucia Szabova is looking to hit the ground running in the UFC after cleaning house in Europe’s OKTAGON MMA. Earlier this year, “Silent Killer” became the promotion’s first female two-division champion. The undefeated Slovakian prospect, 28, combines elite Muay Thai with a high-level ground game, boasting a 75 percent finish rate split between knockouts and submissions. Facing a veteran who hasn’t fought in over a year, Szabova will likely try to swarm her opponent with forward pressure to make a strong first impression. 

Tainara Lisboa

  • 7–4 (2–2 UFC)
  • 3–1 (T)KO
  • 3–2 SUB

Tainara Lisboa’s career has been derailed by inactivity in recent years. “Thai Panther” returned to the cage in May 2025 after a year-and-a-half away, only to get stopped in back-to-back bouts. Now 35, the Brazilian returns after another year-long absence to face undefeated prospect Lucia Szabova. While Lisboa is also dangerous in multiple areas of the fight game, her low striking output, middling takedown defense, and questionable durability all suggest she may struggle to control the dance against the surging newcomer. 

Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa Pick, Best Bet

Lucia Szabova looks poised to make a statement in her UFC debut, pitted against fading veteran Tainara Lisboa. While the latter has a slight experience edge, her recent inactivity has been costly and should remain a factor on Saturday night. Szabova has the skill set, activity, and momentum to leave the judges out of it.

Best Bet | Lucia Szabova by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-140)

Cooper is a Brooklyn-based writer and editor who joined DraftKings in September 2025. A recent graduate of Jay-Z’s Roc Nation School of Sports at Long Island University, he served as the chief sports editor of the campus newspaper and the lead sideline reporter for the men’s basketball team. His previous stops include amNewYork and the New York Post.
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