Lamar Jackson returns Sunday to find a team that has been throwing away winnable games with their backup quarterback. Cincinnati erased the Ravens’ 13-0 halftime lead by scoring on all five second-half drives last week. Getting Lamar back for a meeting with Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is wonderful. Baltimore still owes him four quarters of competent football. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Bills vs. Ravens prediction, preview
Jackson averaged 10.07 yards per attempt before his ankle injury, and Ravens receiver Zay Flowers caught 18 of his 21 targets for 352 yards and two touchdowns with Jackson playing. Buffalo’s coverage has been a mess often enough to make that reunion enticing. Flowers has averaged 4.53 YPRR across 76 routes against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Buffalo’s principal coverage combination. Bills nickel corner Dee Alford is questionable, while safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson is suspended. Jackson should have openings even if his ankle discourages running.
That limitation deserves more than a passing mention. Jackson practiced fully all week but still described pain when cutting. His presence can help Ravens running back Derrick Henry by making defenders respect the quarterback keeper: Henry has averaged 4.5 yards per carry with Jackson on the field, versus 3.3 without him. Buffalo has allowed only 3.84 yards per rush, though, and Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver returns without a game designation. Baltimore also loses starting right guard Vega Ioane. Offensive coordinator Declan Doyle acknowledged that Baltimore’s blocking calls too often failed to reach everyone, leaving defenders unblocked. Lamar cannot fix that by showing up.
Allen, of course, has his own ways to avoid a frustrating afternoon. Las Vegas held him to one rushing yard, and Buffalo answered through underneath completions that became 175 yards after the catch. Bills running back James Cook entered the bye with five straight games of at least 75 rushing yards. Allen has averaged 8.80 yards per attempt; Cook can punish defenders who devote themselves to containing the quarterback.
Ravens vs. Bills pick, best bet
Baltimore’s rush supplies a genuine objection. Ravens edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has generated 29 pressures in five appearances, and Bills right tackle Spencer Brown remains questionable. Receiver DJ Moore and tight end Dalton Kincaid are questionable, too. Buffalo must handle that uncertainty without making Allen hold the ball against pressure. Cincinnati accelerated its passing against Baltimore last week, exposing missed tackles and coverage failures; the Ravens must show they can disrupt those quicker answers.
I’m taking Baltimore +3. Buffalo has conceded 21 defensive penalties through six games, including 12 holds, and its late coverage failures have repeatedly demanded rescue from Allen. The bye offered repair time, not proof the defense is repaired. Jackson’s passing gives Baltimore a credible way to exploit those problems without requiring a fully restored rushing workload. Allen can win another high-scoring game while the Ravens stay within a field goal.
Best bet: Ravens +3 (-108).
Projected score: Bills 30, Ravens 28.
