West Virginia quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. spent last Saturday throwing Cincinnati out of the defense they wanted to play. The Bearcats crowded his runners; Hawkins answered with a magnificent 464 passing yards, at one point escaping his own goal line through consecutive sideline completions to receiver Prince Strachan. TCU now has to prepare for a passer who just punished the very approach that had bottled up his backfield. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
TCU vs. WVU prediction, preview
Mountaineers running back Cam Cook gained only 40 yards on 15 carries against Cincinnati after running for 142 at Iowa State and 141 against Arizona. West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez should persist with Cook, but Hawkins will have to win some difficult passing downs again. TCU defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has held opponents to 5.9 yards per attempt through six games. Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway completed a wretched 22 of 53 against the Horned Frogs, although he played through an ankle injury.
Rodriguez specifically warned about TCU’s athletic front and their third-and-long blitzes. Hawkins can hurt defenders who sell out against Cook, as Cincinnati learned painfully; Avalos has far better evidence that his coverage can survive those throws. I expect fewer of last week’s spectacular escapes and more West Virginia punts. Hawkins’ progress still matters enormously at a double-digit spread. He has just carried an offense through an afternoon when its featured runner could barely get going.
TCU quarterback Jaden Craig gets a much kinder matchup. West Virginia let Cincinnati amass 622 yards without taking the ball away, one game after allowing Arizona to throw for 341. Craig can stretch this secondary through receiver Jordan Dwyer, who caught six passes for 150 yards at Baylor, including a 67-yard gain. Wideout Ed Small added seven catches for 91 and a touchdown. Against a defense conceding an appalling 10.2 yards per pass attempt this season, those receivers should get chances to run away from coverage again.
WVU vs. TCU pick, best bet
Horned Frogs coach Sonny Dykes has had considerably less joy handing the ball off. TCU finished the Baylor game with 33 net rushing yards, including Craig’s sack losses. Running back Landon Walker gained 36 on six carries; fellow back Jon Denman managed 14 on six. Dykes cannot assume his backs will finish everything Dwyer starts. Craig led one 73-yard drive that ended in a field goal and another 40-yard possession that ended with a punt.
Back at Amon G. Carter Stadium for an 11 a.m. local kickoff, with clear weather expected, TCU should find enough downfield completions to win. But Craig’s protection and the uneven rushing leave room for several promising possessions to fizzle. Hawkins has just shown he can carry West Virginia when Cook gets stopped. TCU still has to turn those long catches into a double-digit win; I’ll take West Virginia +10.5.
Best bet: West Virginia +10.5 (-105).
Projected score: TCU 31, West Virginia 24.
Best Bet: WVU +10.5 (-105) at TCU
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
