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Prediction, pick for Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari at UFC 333

Prediction, pick for Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari at UFC 333

UFC Sports Betting Picks DraftKings Network MMA

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By: Ryan Wohl

The first fight on today’s UFC 333 card, in the Early Prelims, is a three-round Women’s Strawweight bout between Iasmin Lucindo and Nicolle Caliari. The UFC 333 Early Prelims begin at 10:00 a.m. ET on Paramount+, and Lucindo vs. Caliari is the lone women’s fight on the card. Caliari weighed in 4.5 pounds over the 116-pound limit, so she forfeited 30 percent of her fight purse to Lucindo. 

Check out my best bet for Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari at UFC 333 below.

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Iasmin Lucindo to Win by Decision (-150)

At only 24, Lucindo is entering her 25th professional MMA fight, which is impressive. Lucindo’s record stands at 18-6 with 11 finishes and is 5-2 in the UFC. Since 2023, Lucindo has gone 5-1 in her previous six contests, with her last two wins coming against Angela Hill and Marina Rodriguez. This is Lucindo’s first fight since August 2025, ending a 14-month drought. 

Caliari is 9-4 with five knockouts and four submissions and is coming off her first UFC victory against Shauna Bannon in May. Both fighters in this bout are 5’3″, but Lucindo possesses a four-inch reach advantage (66″ vs. 62″). On the feet, Lucindo averages more significant strikes per minute (3.22 vs. 2.88) while having the edge in striking accuracy (45% vs. 39%). Caliari lands more takedowns per 15 minutes (3.38 vs. 2.28), but Lucindo has the better takedown accuracy (55% vs. 29%) and defense (68% vs. 50%). 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Lucindo is a big -410 favorite, while Caliari is the underdog at +320. This bout is -250 to go the distance, with an over/under of 2.5 rounds and the over is -298. Lucindo should be able to get the best of Caliari if she is the aggressor, thanks to her well-rounded skill set. Having a four-inch reach advantage should allow Lucindo to keep Caliari at range while breaking her down over 15 minutes. Although 14 of Lucindo’s fights have ended by finish, seven of her previous eight bouts have gone to a decision. Lucindo has only one finish in the previous four years, making it a better play to take her to win on the judges’ scorecards at -150. 

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Ryan Wohl
Ryan Wohl
Ryan is a University of Arizona graduate and Philadelphia native. Since 2024, he has been a writer for DraftKings Network, primarily covering combat sports. He is a big Philly sports fan and loves to collect sneakers, as well.
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