NFL Week 7 is upon us and the AFC North is locked in a virtual dead heat for first place. All four teams are above .500, which makes things all-the-more interesting when the Cincinnati Bengals hit the road and head to Baltimore on Sunday. Even with Lamar Jackson ruled out once again for the home side, this should be quite the game.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET in Baltimore. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Bengals vs. Ravens in NFL Week 7.
Bengals vs. Ravens prediction, preview
Heading into this week, the Bengals are last in the AFC North… at 3-2. It’s hard to understate how competitive this division has been – even if the Browns seem like frauds – but Cincinnati truly is better than the standings indicate. The Bengals are 10th in scoring with 25.6 PPG, but that’s hardly a surprise given the typical trend with this team. They’re attacking through the air and are 10th in EPA/dropback behind the play of Joe Burrow, who has 1,361 passing yards with an 11-3 TD-INT ratio. He’s playing great football and his top targets are reaping the benefits, as Tee Higgins (27 REC, 423 YDS, 1 TD) and Ja’Marr Chase (27 REC, 289 YDS, 4 TD) lead the team in receiving. It’s worth noting that Mike Gesicki also has four touchdowns on just 12 receptions, too. Cincy’s offense falls second in PROE, which isn’t necessarily a surprise, but that may also be a result of a struggling run game that sits 17th in EPA/rush behind an underwhelming season from Chase Brown. Where the Bengals buck the trend is on defense, though. That side of the ball was a constant problem for years in this city, but they currently come in at 14th in opponent scoring with 21.8 PPG allowed. Defensive coordinator Al Golden has helped flip the script, especially with the unit ranked eighth in EPA/dropback allowed.
While the run defense did look solid in the early weeks with some new faces, it cratered over the last three games, allowing an average of 155.3 rushing yards per game to the Steelers, Jaguars and Dolphins. Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and B.J. Hill are good players, but there could be major issues for Cincinnati this week against a team with a dynamic rushing attack.
The Ravens are 4-2 themselves, but things haven’t been particularly pretty or consistent in the absence of Lamar Jackson. The multi-time MVP has missed multiple weeks with an ankle issue and was ruled out again on Saturday, so it’s Tyler Huntley under center again. The backup led the team to a 30-23 win in Week 5 against the Falcons, but they fell short in a 13-10 loss to the Browns last week. Even with inconsistent play from him, though, this unit ranks seventh in scoring with 26.0 PPG. They’re sixth in EPA/play on offense, riding Derrick Henry’s shoulders as the standout runner has 534 rushing yards and seven touchdowns already. Zay Flowers missed a game and has seen limited usage while returning from injury in another, but he still paces the roster with 32 catches for 471 yards and two scores, a testament to his own breakout. Rookie WR Ja’Kobi Lane returned to the mix last week, further solidifying the passing attack. Defensively, the Ravens are allowing 22.0 PPG, 15th in the NFL, but they’ve been much more effective against the pass (ninth in EPA/dropback) than the run (24th in EPA/rush).
Bengals vs. Ravens pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, DraftKings Sportsbook listed the Bengals as a -1.5 favorite on the road with -118 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Ravens were a -102 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 47.5 combined points.
With Jackson since ruled out, taking Derrick Henry’s rushing lines feels like a winning strategy this week. As mentioned earlier, the Bengals’ defense has collapsed against the run over the last three games prior to their bye week. It’s one thing to allow Jaylen Warren and Bhayshul Tuten to have big days, but it’s another sign entirely that Ollie Gordon had 88 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati in Week 5. It’s also certainly worth noting that Malik Willis had his best game of the season on the ground in that one with 74 yards and a score of his own. After giving up at 138, 111 and 217 rushing yards over the last three matchups, none of which came against elite running backs, the Bengals may be in trouble against Henry. This could quickly become a dream matchup for the Ravens’ star runner, so the over on 85.5 rushing yards looks good with potential to ladder the play up to 100+ rushing yards at plus value.
