Neither the Rays, nor the Brewers, have ever won a World Series. Obviously, some time in the next two weeks, that will change.
Will said victory also fix the sport of baseball and stop the incoming lockout? Probably not. So, I would suggest that we all bask in the glow of these games while we can.
It’s the NL’s best clashing with the AL’s best in Milwaukee. Let’s break down Game 1, which starts at 8:00 p.m. ET, with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Brewers pick, best bets today
- Brewers ML (-188): When it comes to two teams this similar, any advantage is magnified to the nth degree. That advantage in Game 1 is named Jacob Misiorowski, who led MLB in ERA (1.80), xERA (2.12) and FIP (2.17). I guess home field is a pretty well-established “advantage” too.
- William Contreras 2+ Total Bases (+143): Contreras is red-hot in the postseason, slashing .367/.457/.700 with a 212 wRC+ in his 35 plate appearances. Now, he’ll get to square-off with a familiar face in Nick Martinez, who spent years in the NL Central with the Reds. Contreras has two long balls and a .944 OPS off the RHP in their careers.
Rays vs. Brewers prediction, preview
Thanks to a tidy sweep of the Dodgers in the NLCS, the Brewers haven’t played a game since all the way back on October 15. While we can debate what exactly that means for the timing of the club’s hitters, the clear benefit is the ability to set up a rested pitching staff in the desired order. Unsurprisingly, for Milwaukee, that means Game 1 will be started by NL Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski.
Though Misiorowski hasn’t quite performed to expectations so far in these playoffs, most of his “struggles” can be chalked up to an unsustainably high .409 opponent BABIP. Everything else seems pretty normal, as the right-hander has struck out 11 batters across 8.1 innings of work, en route to a 1.90 FIP. Let’s also not forget the larger sample of a 30-start regular season. Misiorowski led qualified MLB pitchers in almost every imaginable statistic. The 24-year-old registered league-low marks in ERA (1.80), xERA (2.12) and FIP (2.17), all while posting 100th percentile marks in average fastball velocity (100.6) and strikeout rate (37.9%). Still, maybe most impressive was an 81st percentile walk rate (6.6%), at least after the sophomore managed just an 11th percentile figure back in 2025 (11.0%). This is a starter with almost no weaknesses.
Hilariously, Kevin Cash will counter “The Miz” with his polar opposite: Nick Martinez. Let’s just say that both took very different paths to being an All-Star in 2026. Martinez is extremely contact-oriented, relying on an elite ability to induce weakly hit batted ball events, instead of racking up strikeouts. The result was a 3.10 ERA over 180.0 innings in the regular season, though with this archetype of pitcher, there’s always going to be some red flags. For Martinez, that was a 4.63 SIERA, due mostly to a second percentile whiff rate (17.4%) and a fourth percentile strikeout rate (15.1%). It’s simply a style of pitching that lends itself to variables. For instance, Martinez lucked into a .202 opponent BABIP with runners in scoring position. Imagine how different the veteran’s ERA would be if that figure had been league average.
Starting pitchers aside, these two teams (and organizations) are eerily similar. Fielding Bible has both in the top five of MLB in DRS for 2026, with the Rays (87) second and the Brewers (62) sitting fourth. FanGraphs has both inside the top 10 of base running value, which makes sense, given that each club finished the regular season top five in steals. Both are led by managers that have been lauded for their ability to not only get the most out of a bullpen, but do so without high-priced arms. Simply put, Tampa and Milwaukee are two teams that wring the most value out of every player. The Rays and the Brewers thrive in the margins.
Offensively, you can again see the likenesses. Both teams hit .258 during the regular season, mustering a top five wRC+ despite ranking in the bottom-third of the league in home runs and ISO. That said, the Brewers’ advanced stats were a little more promising than the Rays’. Unlike Tampa, who ranked 29th in hard hit rate (34.6%) and expected wOBA on batted ball events (.334), Milwaukee rode the seventh-best hard hit rate (40.3%) to a top five expected wOBA (.321). If I had to trust just one of these lineups, the choice is pretty clear.
