RB Touch & Target Projections for Commanders vs. 49ers

In fantasy football, running back is arguably the most important position on the field. At the very least, good RBs are the hardest commodity to come by in most formats, and finding ones with any value in DFS is a chore.

With all that in mind, I’m here help.

Let’s break down some touch and target projections for each backfield in tonight’s Monday Night Football tilt between the Washington Commanders and the San Francisco 49ers.

RB Fantasy Projections for Commanders vs. 49ers

Washington Commanders

Generated October 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.

– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (30% 2025 / 70% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).

This is one of the more interesting projections we’ve had all season, as there’s not a ton of data on this specific combination of backs. Heck, Austin Ekeler didn’t even sign with the Commanders until late September, and in his first game in Week 4, Rachaad White was inactive due to a shoulder issue. Tack on the injury to Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin) and rookie Kaytron Allen being waived, and you’ve got no shortage of variables in Washington’s backfield.

Here’s what we do know. With all three of Croskey-Merritt, White and Ekeler active in Week 5’s tie versus the Giants, White saw 37 snaps to Ekeler’s six. However, Ekeler did manage to garner four touches on his six plays, so it’s not like offensive coordinator David Blough was averse to getting the veteran involved. Still, if one of these two is going to end up as the “work horse” back on Monday, it’s going to be the younger White, who will also surely be the one to see any goal line work.

With that said, matchup needs to be considered, too. The 49ers are one of 11 teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. They’ve also surrendered just one opposing rushing touchdown dating back to Week 2. This is a stout front seven, and a unit that is often protecting a lead, which means opposing offenses usually aren’t looking to establish a classic between-the-tackles runner. In fact, San Francisco is conceding 7.4 receptions per contest to RBs, as opponents are often in a negative script. That figure is easily the highest in the league, and something that Ekeler might be more prone to exploit than White. Take notice in PPR settings.

San Francisco 49ers

Generated October 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.

– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (30% 2025 / 70% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).

Projecting the 49ers’ backfield isn’t quite as simple as it used to be, but let’s not feign ignorance on the role that Christian McCaffrey plays for this team. While CMC has yet to exceed 15 rushing attempts in a game this season, the veteran is still logging a 69.4% snap share, and he entered Week 6 sitting sixth in the NFL in targets (24) and receptions (19) among all running backs. It’s not the 83.0% snap rate from last season, and McCaffrey isn’t tracking to lead the league in touches for a second straight campaign, but in his 10th year in the league, this feels like a smart real-life move from Kyle Shanahan.

It’s also worth mentioning that the 49ers spent some legitimate draft capital to bring in Kaelon Black, taken 90th-overall in this year’s NFL Draft. Still, Black’s 15-touch debut in Week 1 was likely more about the game being in Australia than anything else, and the rookie’s been a complete non-factor as a pass catcher through five games. Black’s averaging 5.8 carries and 17.8 rushing yards since the beginning of Week 2. He’s an afterthought in fantasy, aside from his cushy handcuff status.