C.J. Stroud finally has a victory to take overseas. Houston thumped Tennessee 26-3 to end their winless start, then endured a delayed Thursday departure for London. Jacksonville has already spent a week there after beating Philadelphia 19-17. Wembley hosts the divisional meeting Sunday, with the Jaguars trying to turn another productive afternoon into something less frantic. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Jaguars vs. Texans prediction, preview
Offensive coordinator Nick Caley has prepared a few plays for Marvin Harrison Jr.’s expected Houston debut; Stroud should still look first for Nico Collins. Jacksonville has surrendered 266.2 passing yards per game through five weeks, 30th in the league, although opposing quarterbacks have thrown only four touchdowns. Cornerback Montaric Brown is out, and Jaylon Jones is questionable. Caley called passes on 16 of 26 first-down plays against Tennessee and should challenge those corners early again.
Woody Marks needs to contribute through the air. With David Montgomery out, Marks inherits the lead job after turning 19 touches into 85 yards against Tennessee. Jacksonville has allowed a suffocating 63.8 rushing yards per game, the NFL’s fewest. Defensive tackles Arik Armstead and DaVon Hamilton, along with linebacker Foye Oluokun, can leave Houston throwing on difficult downs. Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile has also aligned Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker together on one side; Houston’s protection has to sort those combinations out. Extra help there would subtract from Stroud’s receiving options.
Jaguars coach Liam Coen can manufacture easier throws for Trevor Lawrence through Parker Washington. Washington scored on a 51-yard catch-and-run against Philadelphia, then won in the end zone with one hand. What a splendidly resourceful receiver he has become. Coen’s motion and boot-action throws can move Washington away from Houston’s outside corners, while tight end Brenton Strange works underneath. Jalen Pitre’s shoulder injury removes an important defender from those interior exchanges. Jacksonville has enough receiving talent to earn their way downfield.
Texans vs. Jaguars pick, best bet
Finishing those drives gets harder if Bhayshul Tuten cannot gain ground early. His hefty 22-carry workload produced only 72 rushing yards against Philadelphia; Houston has allowed opposing backs the third-fewest adjusted yards before contact per carry. Walker Little replaces injured left tackle Anton Harrison against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Little brings 31 NFL starts, but Anderson and Hunter combined for 13 pressures last week, and Anderson’s three sacks lifted him to a league-leading 7.5. That rush can turn a promising possession into a punt.
Cam Little rescued Jacksonville with a 57-yard field goal last week, after the offense had gained 408 yards. Lawrence now has to finish those possessions behind a changed line against rushers who just dismantled Tennessee’s protection. I expect Stroud to reach Collins often enough for those lost Jaguars possessions to decide a close game. I’ll take the 2.5.
Best bet: Texans +2.5 (+100).
Projected score: Texans 23, Jaguars 20.
