A late offensive explosion saw the Guardians take Game 1 of the ALCS on Monday, can the club now carry that momentum into Game 2 against the Rays?
More importantly, who will be the unexpected and slightly cheaper bats making all those runs possible? Let’s dive into tonight’s Showdown slate on DraftKings and find a couple value plays.
Top MLB DFS Value Picks
- Guardians C Patrick Bailey ($3,800)
- Rays OF Victor Mesa Jr. ($6,600)
Set your DraftKings MLB DFS lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st] (CLE @ TB)
C Patrick Bailey, Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, $3,800
I’m going to cut off any “recency bias” claims right at the start. Did Bailey hit a home run in Game 1? He sure did. In fact, Bailey had a pair of hits in the 7-3 victory, bringing his slash line to .368/.400/.684 in the postseason with a 203 wRC+. That’s a sample size of only 20 plate appearances for one of the most glove-first players of this decade, so I’ll forgive anyone for questioning the sudden legitimacy of Bailey’s bat. However, it’s really not that sudden when you dig into the numbers.
Dating back to the beginning of July in the regular season, the switch-hitting backstop hit .243 with a .750 OPS and a 110 wRC+ across 173 plate appearances. The stats get even better when you isolate Bailey’s PAs versus right-handed pitching — like he’ll see tonight in the form of Freddy Peralta ($11,000). In that three-month sample, Bailey registered an .809 OPS and a .217 ISO within the split, along with a very encouraging 11.1% barrel rate.
I’m not here suggesting Patrick Bailey is now Barry Bonds or anything, but the veteran has been seeing the ball well for awhile now, and he’s one of the Guardians’ hottest bats. With a price tag below $4,000, he’s easily viable on this single-game slate.
OF Victor Mesa Jr., Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians, $6,600
The Rays will be facing the left-handed Parker Messick ($12,400) in Game 2, which creates an interesting strategy decision for those taking part in this slate. Do you chase Tampa’s platoon bats knowing they’ll likely be limited to just two plate appearances? We saw this play out with Ryan Vilade ($4,200) in Game 1. Almost as soon as Foster Griffin was pulled, so was Vilade. However, we’ve also seen Vilade take advantage of this reduced playing time, like when he took Max Fried deep in Game 3 of the ALDS. There’s a lot to weigh.
My solution is to simply opt for Victor Mesa Jr. instead. Despite being left-handed, Mesa has held his own against LHPs throughout the regular season and the playoffs. In fact, ironically, he also hit a long ball off Max Fried last Wednesday. In 66 pre-postseason plate appearances within the split, Mesa slashed .333/.385/.483 with a .380 wOBA and a 146 wRC+. I can’t guarantee that Mesa will continue his left-on-left heroics, but I’m almost positive he’ll play this whole contest. There’s value in that security.
