A flurry of late runs on Monday propelled the Guardians to a 7-3 win in Tampa Bay. With its victory, Cleveland now holds a 1-0 lead in the ALCS. Still, there’s plenty of baseball left between these two Junior Circuit powerhouses. The Rays will be eager to turn the page, hoping to salvage a game at Tropicana Field. Can the visitors pull off a second straight upset this evening in Florida?
The Rays are favorites (-132) over the Guardians; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s ALCS showdown between Cleveland and Tampa Bay on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Rays pick, best bet today
- Guardians vs. Rays under seven runs (-123): In this battle between quality arms, it’s difficult to envision a ton of offense. Tampa Bay has done next to nothing against Messick in the past, while Peralta is in a groove on the mound over the past two months. Backed up by quality bullpens, these clubs are poised for a low-scoring nail biter on Tuesday.
Guardians vs. Rays prediction, preview
Cleveland will hand the ball to their staff ace tonight, Parker Messick. It’s been a remarkable season for the rookie, already among the sport’s top arms. Through 186.1 innings pitched (32 starts), he’s recorded a 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 193 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). While Messick can certainly generate whiffs, his stuff isn’t the biggest draw here. The southpaw is one of the league’s best at suppressing quality contact. He ranks within the 88th percentile in barrel rate (5.0%) and 80th percentile in hard-hit rate (34.3%). In addition, the 25-year-old displays stellar command (2.4 BB/9). This is not a pitcher that gets in his own way very often.
The Rays have won three of four games this postseason in spite of their offense. The team has only scored 13 earned runs during that time, three of which were due to sloppy Yankees fielding. This group does hit better at home, so this feels like a massive opportunity in this series. Most of the team’s production comes down to its All-Star trio. Junior Caminero (142 wRC+), Yandy Diaz (125 wRC+) and Jonathan Aranda (123 wRC+) form an intimidating middle of he order. Midseason pickup Liam Hicks is another name to watch as well. Still, the AL East champs could have difficulty putting bat to ball this evening. This season, Tampa Bay posted the league’s sixth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitching (.678). To boot, Messick owns a minuscule 1.03 ERA over 26.1 career innings against the Rays.
In this potential pitcher’s duel, Freddy Peralta will toe the slab for Tampa Bay. Acquired in a trade with the Mets, it’s been a tale of two halves for the Dominican. During nine appearances since August 10th, he’s sporting a 2.26 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. That’s carried over into October; the former All-Star tossed 4.2 innings of one-run ball vs. the Yankees. None of this should come as much of a surprise. Giving this Rays coaching staff an arm with loads of talent is a recipe for success. Peralta, much like Messick, is supported by one of baseball’s better bullpens. Tampa Bay relievers accounted for a good, not great, 3.99 ERA this season. Bridging the gap to Bryan Baker (1.44 ERA) will be essential; the closer likely pitches two innings if necessary.
Cleveland’s rally last night was sparked by a pair of hits from third baseman Jose Ramirez. The franchise cornerstone has looked like his old self during the playoffs, carrying an otherwise middling offense. Through six postseason games, he’s slashing .348/.444/.739 with two home runs and eight RBIs. Still, one seven-run showing isn’t enough to completely buy into this lineup. The Guardians averaged 4.21 runs per game during the regular season, tied for seventh-fewest in the big leagues. Even worse, they’re responsible for the seventh-lowest OPS against right-handed pitching (.706).
Best Bet: Guardians vs. Rays under seven runs (-123)
Messick hasn’t been terrific during his first two postseason outings. Regardless, today’s matchup presents an opportunity for a bounce back. Tampa Bay has been awful against left-handers, with some notable difficulty during the past two years against Cleveland’s starter. On the other side, this Guardians lineup is inconsistent at best. Rays manager Kevin Cash will use all the pitching at his disposal to prevent this score from becoming lopsided.
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