Last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series on their way to their second consecutive World Series title. Last night, though, Milwaukee took Game 1 of the rematch, 2-1, and for the first time all season, it is now the favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to win it all.
But the series remains tight; even last night, the Dodgers had the tying run in scoring position when Mookie Betts flew out to end the game. The tenor of the series could shift dramatically if Los Angeles manages to win, given that Games 3, 4, and 5 will all take place at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers will send their ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to the mound, and the Brewers will counter with Logan Henderson.
Let’s break down this much-anticipated rematch with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 Best Bets
- Under 7 (-115): This pitching matchup features a starter with a sub-2 road ERA for his career (Yamamoto) against a starter with a sub-2 home ERA for his career (Henderson). Both of these offenses are talented, but each has a sub-.700 OPS this playoffs.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto 8+ Strikeouts (+147): Milwaukee, which struck out the 11th-most times during the regular season, recorded seven strikeouts against Tarik Skubal last night in just five innings. Yamamoto is more likely than not to at least pitch into the seventh inning.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 prediction, preview
Los Angeles sent Yamamoto to the mound in a must-win Game 3 against the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS and won, eventually going on to oust the Braves in four games. The Dodgers ended the regular season strong, going 18-7 in September. However, after finishing that month (and the regular season as a whole) with the second-best OPS, Los Angeles ranks merely sixth on that side of the ball in these playoffs, the second-worst mark among the four teams still alive. It couldn’t capitalize on its early hits against Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1, scoring only one run before getting shut down by the DL Hall-Abner Uribe-Aaron Ashby-Trevor Megill battering ram. However, the Dodgers’ pitching, an unsurprising strength in the regular season, has been stellar these playoffs, recording a 2.05 ERA through five games. After a rough June and July, Los Angeles’ bullpen found its groove in September, and in Game 1, Alex Vesia, Evan Phillips, and Tanner Scott followed up Tarik Skubal’s solid five innings with three frames of one-hit, shutout ball. Recent All-Stars Edwin Díaz, Justin Wrobleski, and Kris Bubic are also expected to make appearances at some point this series, as is former top prospect Roki Sasaki, who was stellar as both a starter and a reliever after the All-Star break. The Dodgers have the bullpen depth to match Milwaukee despite the Brewers’ unstoppable top four.
Milwaukee held Los Angeles off over the final few weeks of the season despite the Dodgers’ hot form, as it went 18-6 to secure its first 100-win season in franchise history. The Brewers were just a few OPS points worse than Los Angeles both in the final month of the regular season and for the campaign as a whole, and they’ve been the best hitting team so far these playoffs despite not scoring more than four runs in any of their five postseason games. Jackson Chourio, who drove in at least one run in each Division Series game, and William Contreras (1.041 OPS these playoffs despite a zero-for-three performance last night) have been Milwaukee’s heroes so far, and Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, and Luis Lara have also come in clutch with timely hits. Plus, the Brewers’ pitching was the league’s second-best during the regular season and has been the best so far these playoffs, as they haven’t allowed more than four runs in any game. Misiorowski is almost certain to win the NL Cy Young Award, and Hall, Uribe, and Megill could all receive consideration for the Reliever of the Year award. None of Hall, Uribe, Megill, and Ashby has given up an earned run in these playoffs. Shane Drohan, Chad Patrick, and Antonio Senzatela, the latter of whom has also not given up a run yet these playoffs, could also appear later in the series. In an ideal world, Milwaukee would get four or five innings from its starter and the rest of the game from its untouchable quartet.
The Dodgers have their Plan A on the mound. Yamamoto had a spectacular regular season, recording a 2.53 ERA across 28 starts and leading the league in innings per start. He’s consistently been better in the postseason, sporting a 2.14 career ERA across 11 appearances (10 starts) and winning World Series MVP last season, and he pitched seven innings of four-hit, one-run ball to earn the win in Game 3 of the NLDS. Yamamoto basically has no weaknesses, ranking in the top third in every single Statcast category, and his strongest areas line up with the Brewers’. Milwaukee walks a lot, drawing the second-most free passes in the league during the regular season, but Yamamoto (90th-percentile walk rate) should be able to command the zone. He’s also excellent at incentivizing chases, so the Brewers might flail at breaking pitches more than they’re used to. Plus, while he’s occasionally vulnerable to the long ball, Milwaukee hit the second-fewest homers during the regular season. Yamamoto gets even better on unfriendly turf, sporting a sub-2 road ERA for his career, and despite having baseball’s second-best home offense, the Brewers know that better than anyone. Yamamoto delivered a one-run complete game in Game 2 of last season’s NLCS to put Los Angeles up 2-0, and he pitched seven innings of one-run ball at this venue in May.
For his part, Henderson is no slouch. He has a 2.33 ERA in 23 career starts, including a 2.47 mark this season, and he never allowed more than three earned runs in any start. Henderson proved unfazed by the moment in Game 2 of the NLDS, pitching five innings of two-hit, one-run ball to help Milwaukee win 4-3 after Chourio’s walkoff hit. In fact, Henderson’s 2.74 xERA and .201 xBA were better than Yamamoto’s marks this season. He also ranked in the top decile in both strikeout rate and walk rate, which could be critical against a Dodgers offense that drew the third-most free passes and struck out the fourth-fewest times during the regular season. However, Los Angeles is well-suited to take advantage of his weaknesses; he posted just a fourth-percentile ground-ball rate, and the Dodgers have finished in the top three in fly ball rate in nine of the last 10 seasons. As a result, Henderson also sports just a 34th-percentile barrel rate, and Los Angeles ranked seventh in that stat this season, hitting the seventh-most homers in the regular season and the most so far these playoffs. Still, Henderson’s career home ERA (1.64) is even better than Yamamoto’s road mark (1.99), and he’s given up just one run in 12.0 innings of work against the Dodgers this season, including five shutout frames at this venue. While their league-best road offense is the ideal theoretical counter, they’ve yet to put theory into practice against Henderson.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7 (-115)
Los Angeles is slightly better-suited to get to Henderson than the Brewers are to get to Yamamoto, but offense falls off in the playoffs anyway. Each of the Dodgers’ five games have stayed under the total, and four of Milwaukee’s five have.
Strong Lean: Yoshinobu Yamamoto 8+ Strikeouts (+147)
Yamamoto recorded at least eight strikeouts in five of his final seven starts of the regular season before recording 10 in Los Angeles’ Game 3 win over Atlanta. He also had eight in his complete game in Game 2 of last season’s World Series.
