John Harbaugh’s 3–1 Giants have won twice since losing Jaxson Dart, each time intercepting a pass in their own end zone. Dan Quinn returns from London with Washington at 1–3 and Marcus Mariota nursing a knee injury; Jayden Daniels still needs a full practice week to reclaim the job. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Washington Commanders and the New York Giants.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Commanders vs. Giants prediction, preview
Malik Nabers finally got loose against Arizona. After gaining just 27 yards over two games, he caught six passes for 112 and scored between their deep safeties. Jameis Winston threw three touchdowns to end New York’s nine-quarter drought, although Arvell Reese’s interception supplied a short field for Nabers’ score. Winston also threw two interceptions that Arizona turned into ten points. Denzel Burke fooled him on a dig to Malachi Fields by changing leverage after the snap. Daronte Jones should make Winston decipher Washington’s coverage, too.
Winston won’t get much help running. Cam Skattebo and Najee Harris slogged through 27 carries for 88 yards Sunday, and Javon Kinlaw and Daron Payne should make New York work inside. Jones’ defense forced punts or turnovers on Indianapolis’ first five possessions. Odafe Oweh started that sequence by stripping Daniel Jones. Matt Nagy ought to call more early-down passes to Isaiah Likely, who caught seven of his 12 targets Sunday. Winston can move the chains through him and send Nabers deeper if the safeties squeeze those throws. He has to release the ball sooner after taking four sacks against Arizona.
I’d ask less of Daniels as a runner. He gained 69 yards before getting hurt at Dallas, but his brace now prevents full extension of his left elbow. He says it leaves his throwing motion alone. He still has to throw more productively than he did at Philadelphia, where he managed a paltry 4.8 yards per attempt. Stefon Diggs can find openings behind Reese when Dennard Wilson sends the linebacker. Having caught three red-zone touchdowns already, Diggs gives Daniels someone to seek out near the goal line. Terry McLaurin’s hamstring injury still threatens another absence.
Giants vs. Commanders pick, best bet
David Blough needs his backs to spare Daniels some third-and-long. They managed a dreadful 49 yards on 18 carries in London. Sam Cosmi’s possible return from concussion would restore an experienced right guard. Wilson has blitzed more since losing Brian Burns; Abdul Carter pressured Jacoby Brissett nine times Sunday, eight within 2.5 seconds. Blough can call runs outside, where Arizona gained 81 yards on their first two drives. New York adjusted and allowed just 42 on the next 16 carries. I expect Carter to force punts when Washington falls behind the chains.
Diggs should help Daniels finish two drives with touchdowns; I expect two more to end in field goals. Winston should answer with two touchdowns through Nabers and Likely. Kinlaw and Payne can stop Skattebo near the goal line, leaving Dominic Zvada three field goals. He has made all nine attempts, three from 50-plus yards. I’ll take the 3.5 on a Giants field-goal win.
ML if you’re nasty.
Best bet: Giants +3.5 (-115).
Projected score: Giants 23, Commanders 20.
