Struggling lightweights collide on Saturday night as Francisco Prado faces Ismael Bonfim at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan inside the Meta APEX.
Prado (12–5, 1–5 UFC) has dropped four straight decisions, most recently falling on the scorecards against Charles Radtke at UFC 327 in April. Bonfim (20–7, 2–4 UFC) has gotten stopped three fights in a row, capped by a first-round submission against Axel Sola in July.
Prado enters as a -120 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Bonfim is a +100 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 1.5 rounds.
Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim Fight Preview
Francisco Prado
- 12–5 (1–5 UFC)
- 6–0 (T)KO
- 6–0 SUB
Argentina’s Francisco Prado has looked out of his element since joining the UFC. The 24-year-old prospect has come up short in five of his first six trips to the Octagon across lightweight and welterweight, with a largely pedestrian strength of schedule.
That said, Prado thrives in chaos and arrives in Las Vegas with a 100 percent finish rate. He’s also returning to 155 pounds, where he holds a Performance of the Night bonus for his first-round stoppage win over Ottman Azaitar and a Fight of the Night nod with Daniel Zellhuber. Prado’s relentless drive and cast-iron durability — he’s never been finished — could serve him well in a slugfest with Ismael Bonfim, whose every loss has come inside the distance.
Ismael Bonfim
- 20–7 (2–4 UFC)
- 9–2 (T)KO
- 4–5 SUB
We’ve reached “that guy’s brother” territory with Ismael Bonfim. The older sibling of top-ranked welterweight contender Gabriel Bonfim has been consistently outmatched inside the Octagon, getting stopped in four of his last five fights. Durability has been a constant issue for the Brazilian; all seven of his losses have come by knockout or submission.
“Marreta,” 30, has seemingly lacked the tenacity to hold his ground at MMA’s highest level. However, Bonfim remains a formidable striker backed by sound defense and a solid ground game. He has also faced much stronger opposition during his tenure compared to Prado and could show a more polished version of himself in what could be considered, at least on paper, a dip in competition.
Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim Pick, Best Bet
Time for some good old back-of-the-napkin MMA math. Francisco Prado is an absolute dog with a 100 percent finish rate and a concrete chin. Ismael Bonfim, meanwhile, has constantly wilted under pressure and has suffered all his losses by knockout or submission. In an expected firefight, there’s strong value in taking the former to come out on top.
