After an exciting day of NLDS action on Sunday, the American League gets its turn on Monday. Things get started in Cleveland just past 5:00 p.m. ET, then the Yankees and the Rays will play Game 2 down in Florida around 8:00 p.m. ET.
Here are my two home runs picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook for these ALDS tilts: Miguel Vargas and Spencer Jones.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | +588 | When opponents are able to actually make contact with Gavin Williams, it can be loud. The RHP surrendered 28 long balls during the regular season, along with a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (46.6%) and a third percentile opponent barrel rate (11.4%). Heck, specifically versus RHBs, that hard hit rate jumped all the way up to 50.5%. Vargas has a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.378). He’s also 6-for-14 off Williams in their careers. He sees him well. |
| Spencer Jones | +413 | Even though Freddy Peralta’s been much improved since being traded to Tampa, he’s still only managed a 19.7% strikeout rate. For context, his career strikeout rate is 28.6%. If you can’t get Jones to whiff, you’re going to have problems. The 25-year-old owns a 55.1% hard hit rate and a .489 expected wOBA on batted ball events. That 80 grade power is no joke. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Miguel Vargas 1+ Home Run (+588)
Remember when you were a kid and you had to face a hard-throwing pitcher? What did your coach always say? Probably something like “if it’s coming in hard, it’ll go out even harder.” That is a concept epitomized by Gavin Williams. On the one hand, Williams has used his incredible stuff to register a 33.2% strikeout rate in 2026. However, when opponents are able to actually make contact with the big right-hander, it can be loud. Williams surrendered 28 long balls during the regular season, along with a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (46.6%) and a third percentile opponent barrel rate (11.4%). Heck, specifically versus RHBs, that hard hit rate jumped all the way up to 50.5%. Vargas is the White Sox’s best righty batter, and that’s backed up by a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.378). He’s also seen Williams well throughout the pair’s time in the AL Central, going 6-for-14 (.429) with a home run. That blast was this season, too, coming on July 3.
Spencer Jones 1+ Home Run (+413)
I’ll be very interested to see how Freddy Peralta mixes his pitches tonight. For as much as the Yankees have struggled with splitters in recent seasons, the club was really, really productive against change-ups throughout 2026, and that’s a very important offering for Peralta. Will he lean more on his fastball? I’m sure Spencer Jones would love that. The rookie posted a solid 106 wRC+ across 289 plate appearances in his first taste of the big leagues, often flashing his 80 grade raw power, but also showcasing his concerning propensity to strikeout. That’s probably why I like this matchup. Even though Peralta’s been much improved since being traded to Tampa, he’s still only managed a 19.7% strikeout rate. For context, his career strikeout rate is 28.6%. If you can’t get Jones to whiff, you’re going to have problems. The 25-year-old owns a 55.1% hard hit rate and a .489 expected wOBA on batted ball events.
