Last October, the New York Yankees entered the ALDS riding some momentum after defeating the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Round, only to lose Game 1 to the division-winning Toronto Blue Jays, who had secured the division crown for the first time in 10 years. In that sense, New York fans must get déjà vu; these Yankees are coming off of a sweep of the Red Sox in the Wild Card, but they lost Saturday’s Game 1 to the Tampa Bay Rays, who celebrated their first division title since 2021.
Winning both games in Tampa Bay would set the Rays up well for their first ALCS appearance since their most recent pennant in 2020, while a split would likely make New York a slight favorite to ultimately win the series.
Game 1 saw an instant classic pitcher’s duel between Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen and the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole, and tonight’s Game 2, scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET, could be another one. Likely AL Cy Young Award winner Cam Schlittler will take the mound for New York, and the Rays will counter with September’s AL Pitcher of the Month, Freddy Peralta.
Let’s break down this much-anticipated showdown with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Game 2 Best Bets
- Under 6.5 (-107): Game 1 saw just one run (in fact, the Yankees got just one hit), and with Schlittler and Peralta on the mound, it wouldn’t even be a shock to see Game 2 go into extras at 0-0. New York’s road offense simply isn’t good.
- Freddy Peralta 1 or Fewer Earned Runs Allowed (-123): Peralta allowed one or fewer earned runs in each of his final six starts of the regular season, and given how well-rested Tampa Bay’s bullpen is, it’s unlikely he’s asked to complete the sixth inning.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Game 2 prediction, preview
New York put together a complete performance in the two-game Wild Card Series against Boston, out-scoring its arch-rival 18-2. It was the continuation of a hot closing stretch for the Yankees, as they went a solid 15-8 in September, and despite having just a league-average offense that month, they were by far the best among the eight Wild Card Series participants. Ben Rice nearly won Game 1 against the Red Sox single-handedly with a two-homer, six-RBI effort, and trade deadline acquisition Luis García Jr. went deep in Game 2. But New York’s offense came undone on Saturday night in Tampa, as Austin Wells’ eighth-inning double (in which he was subsequently thrown out trying for third) was its only hit of the game. The Yankees were by far baseball’s best pitching team in the regular season, and they’ve been even better in the playoffs. Even in Game 1, Cole put together five innings of five-hit, one-run ball, and Ryan Weathers, Paul Blackburn, and Brent Headrick relieved him with three clean frames. All of New York’s pitchers besides Cole should be available for tonight’s game, given that the Yankees had an off day last night and will have another one tomorrow. Aaron Boone’s pitchers will show up, but the offense needs to contribute as well.
Still, Tampa Bay has simply been better. The Rays claimed the division lead on June 27 and held onto it for the rest of the season, finishing at least three games over .500 in every complete month of the regular season except for June. In September, Tampa Bay went 16-9 to hold off New York for the division crown. However, the Rays’ offense struggled to end the season, as they posted the 12th-lowest OPS in the last month, and those struggles carried on into Game 1, with AL hits leader Yandy Díaz going just one-for-four and both batting title runner-up Chandler Simpson and likely MVP runner-up Junior Caminero finishing hitless. Like the Yankees, Tampa Bay had a top-quartile pitching staff, with both Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly in line to receive Reliever of the Year votes. The Rays don’t quite have the bullpen depth that New York does, but given that Rasmussen had a 1.86 ERA after the All-Star break and Peralta a 0.79 mark over his final six starts of the season, they might not need to turn to their bullpen for many innings at all. Baker, Kelly, Cam Booser, and and Tyler Wells have all been standout relief options, and they could all be in line to pitch tonight if Peralta shows any signs of fatigue.
It could be tough for Tampa Bay to get much going against Schlittler. The 25-year-old led the American League with a 1.95 ERA in his 193.2 innings, allowing one or fewer earned runs in each of his final nine starts of the season, and he’s been spectacular in his first three career postseason starts, with a 0.87 ERA and a 24:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 20.2 innings of work. Hardly any of his stellar numbers can be chalked up to luck; although his 2.85 xERA was 0.90 runs higher than his actual mark, it was still a 93rd-percentile figure, and he posted 99th-percentile pitching run value to boot. Schlittler pairs elite swing-and-miss stuff with better control, finishing in the top quartile in each of chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, making him perhaps the league’s best counter to the Rays’ contact-oriented approach. Additionally, although he’s been comparatively prone to hard hits, with a 49th-percentile hard-hit rate, 52nd-percentile barrel rate, and 56th-percentile average exit velocity, Tampa Bay lacks power outside of AL home run leader Caminero and ranks in the bottom four in each of those categories. The Rays were better at home, but Schlittler had a 1.16 ERA on the road during the regular season, including an eight-inning, one-run effort against Tampa Bay on July 6.
Peralta is no slouch, either. Despite a rough first half of the season for the New York Mets, the Dominican finished fifth in Cy Young Award voting last season with the Milwaukee Brewers and recovered from a rough first start with Tampa Bay (at hitter’s paradise Coors Field) to return to ace-level form over the final month and a half. He hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any start since late August, and Statcast numbers look upon him relatively favorably, as he finished the season with a 62nd-percentile xERA. New York could be in position to mitigate some of his biggest weaknesses, as he posted a barely-above-median whiff rate and a below-median strikeout rate, and the boom-or-bust Yankees whiffed and struck out at among the league’s highest clips. He’s also done an excellent job limiting hard hits, making him a good matchup against New York’s powerful bats. However, he struggled to keep the ball down, and the Yankees hit fly balls at the third-highest clip. The location splits should be in his favor, as he sports a 2.30 ERA in five career starts at Tropicana Field and New York had baseball’s sixth-worst road offense this season.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Game 2 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-107)
It might be overly simple to go under the total when Game 1 saw just one total run, but both of these starting pitchers are excellent and both of these offenses have their weaknesses. Each of Peralta’s two most recent starts have stayed under the total.
Strong Lean: Freddy Peralta 1 or Fewer Earned Runs Allowed (-123)
This largely depends on whether or not Peralta can keep the ball down, but given his recent track record and the Yankees’ weaker performance against righties than lefties, he should be fine. Plus, Rasmussen provided length on Saturday, so Kevin Cash might play it conservatively with Peralta.
