For the second time in three weeks, the Jacksonville Jaguars blew out their opponent at home in Week 3, thrashing the defending AFC champion New England Patriots, 35-6. It’s been an immensely successful season for Jacksonville overall; despite losing to the Denver Broncos in Week 2, the Jaguars are 2-1, good for solo first in the AFC South.
However, just like last season, Jacksonville has succeed in spite of wideout Brian Thomas Jr, not because of him. The Jaguars finished 13-4 last season with Thomas putting up only 707 receiving yards and two scores, and so far this season, he’s managed only seven catches for 88 yards. He looks like a shell of the player who registered 1,282 yards as a rookie in 2024, the headliner in a brilliant class that also featured two other 100-yard receivers in Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey.
Thomas is still rostered in 82% of Yahoo Sports fantasy leagues, but he’s only started in 11%. Given where he was just two seasons ago, it’s unfathomable to think that Thomas might not be worth a roster spot at all.
Results and Usage
In 2024, Thomas was WR4, catching passes from a combination of Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones, and he was the focal point of that Jacksonville offense, garnering more than twice as many targets as any other player. However, in 2025, Parker Washington usurped the WR1 role with Lawrence under center for the full season, earning four more targets than Thomas and turning them into 10 more catches and 140 more yards. This season, Thomas still ranks second on the team in targets behind Washington, but veteran Jakobi Meyers has been far more efficient with his looks, producing 10 catches, 132 yards, and two scores. Thomas was barely fantasy-viable last season, finishing as WR42; he hasn’t been viable at all this season, as he’s WR80.
Thomas has posted just the 63rd-best Pro Football Focus offensive grades among 107 qualified wideouts this season, good for fourth on his own team. Head coach Liam Coen seems to have lost faith in him; he appeared in 80% of offensive snaps in Doug Pederson’s offense in 2024 and 78% last year in Coen’s first season, but so far in 2026, he’s recorded only a 42% snap share despite only briefly leaving Week 1 with a minor shoulder ailment. He’s still been able to get open, managing 2.7 averaged yards of separation per route, but he’s lost 1.1 yards after the catch per reception this season relative to expectation after being above-average in that stat in both 2024 and 2025.
The fact that Thomas garnered just a single target in Week 3 and played in only 37.1% of the team’s offensive snaps is concerning. That lone target came on the first play of the second quarter, and although part of it is a result of Lawrence’s throwing the ball just once in the fourth quarter while milking clock, it still rings alarm bells that backup running back LaQuint Allen and rookie wideout Josh Cameron both received more targets than Thomas.
Future Outlook
It’s hard to see it getting much better for Thomas unless either Washington or Meyers misses time with injury. As is, Coen has operated a run-first offense, keeping the ball on the ground at the ninth-highest rate and entrusting Lawrence to throw at the fourth-lowest clip. The Jaguars’ reliance on the ground game is partially a factor of their dominant wins, but even in their narrow defeat to Denver, they called runs on 24 of 55 offensive snaps, which would still be a roughly league-average clip this season. Last season, Jacksonville also leaned on its ground game at an above-average rate and was more effective in such situations, so despite reshuffling his running back room in the offseason, there’s precedent to Coen’s strategy.
Thomas has been far from the Jaguars’ most reliable option. Because of his struggles after the catch, Lawrence hasn’t been particularly effective when throwing to him, posting his worst passer rating among the six players that he’s targeted four or more times this season. Three of the six incomplete passes that Lawrence threw his way in the loss to the Broncos hit his hands, including a critical third-and-11 in the fourth quarter that effectively sealed the result. Only one was graded as a drop, and none was a particularly easy catch, but they all should’ve been catchable for a player of Thomas’ supposed pedigree.
Thomas has an unexpectedly difficult matchup in Week 4 against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have had a surprisingly stout defense this season. Cincinnati has given up the 14th-fewest FPTS per game to wide receivers, holding them to the ninth-fewest catches and limiting quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest completion percentage and 11th-lowest passer rating. Per PFF, Thomas’ two most frequent matchups on Sunday are likely to be Dax Hill and DJ Turner II; while Hill doesn’t grade out well by PFF’s standards, he’s allowed just a 66.9 passer rating this season, and Turner has posted the 17th-best coverage grades among 100 qualified corners.
