Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and the league landscape is beginning to take shape. For the first time in what feels like forever, the signs are encouraging for the New York Jets, who finally look like a functional football team. On Sunday, they take on the Detroit Lions, who have much higher expectations this year but are looking far from the caliber they’ll need to be if they hope to compete for a Super Bowl.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET in Detroit. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Jets vs. Lions in NFL Week 3.
Jets vs. Lions prediction, preview
The Jets have long been a tortured franchise, but the sun may finally be starting to peek out from behind the clouds. They beat the Titans 23-10 in the opener and took the Packers to overtime before falling 20-17 last week – after the last few years, a 1-1 record is something for this team to be proud of.
They’ve been quite competitive thus far, looking very solid on both sides of the ball. Geno Smith has 462 yards and just one touchdown through two games, but he’s completed 70.8% of his throws and is clearly the kind of game manager this offense needed to succeed. Garrett Wilson leads the team with 136 receiving yards and a score, but AD Mitchell has begun to break out with 123 yards and is the clear second option in the passing attack. The run game also looked formidable in Week 1 behind Breece Hall, though the backfield was held in check last time out. All in all, the Jets won’t torch you on offense, but they’re making the right play when it counts and have done enough to compete so far. Defensively, they’ve been excellent against the run and have allowed no more than 68 rushing yards in either of their first two contests, though this week’s matchup against Jahmyr Gibbs is obviously a much tougher challenge than what they’ve seen. It’s also worth noting that safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (groin) was a DNP for the first two days of practice and EDGE Joseph Ossai (foot) logged limited sessions in both – they’re names to keep an eye on as the injury report is updated.
The Lions have an identical record to the Jets at 1-1, but the way they’ve gotten there has looked very different. They narrowly beat the Saints 31-30 in overtime to begin the season, then fell to the Bills 41-31 in a contest that was much more lopsided than the final score indicates. It’s already clear this team is going to need to score 30+ points to have a shot, given their defensive shortcomings.
Thankfully for Detroit, the unit does have plenty of weapons. The aforementioned Gibbs ranks third across the NFL with 369 scrimmage yards and has three total touchdowns as the focal point of this team’s attack. Getting the ball into the his hands – or those of receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a league-best 19 receptions with 209 yards and four scores – is typically a winning recipe for the Lions. Sam LaPorta has produced nicely at tight end, though it’s worth mentioning that Jameson Williams is yet to do the same despite seeing solid target volume as the second wideout. Quarterback Jared Goff falls eighth in passing yards with 533 and has dished out six touchdowns without a pick, but there are some valid concerns about how this group may fare given that the offensive line clearly has taken a step back and now has multiple names on the injury report. Defensively, the worries are far greater. The secondary is still down both of its starting safeties as Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph remain on the PUP list, and after two weeks, the defense has given up 915 total yards to opponents.
Jets vs. Lions pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lions as a -6.5 home favorite with -305 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Jets are a +245 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 48.5 combined points.
New York’s defense faces its toughest test yet this week since this opponent is way more loaded than the opponents of the first two games. Detroit can pour on points in a hurry through a variety of playmakers, so it makes sense that the Jets would be an underdog here. It’s possible their defense just gets blasted outright, but there’s also a pretty strong argument that their offense is capable of sticking around, too. Smith doesn’t have to shoulder a huge load if the Jets can control the pace of play through the run game. Hall should be able to gash a front seven that just allowed 203 yards on the ground last week and ranks 31st in defensive EPA/rush. Plus, Wilson and Mitchell are finding their stride as an up-and-coming receiver pairing.
With the Lions’ defense in such poor shape – they rank 28th in overall defensive EPA/play – there’s a chance that the Jets can punch above their weight to cover as long as their own defense plays an average game as well. They’ll probably still lose, but I like them to surprise some people by keeping this game competitive to cover this 6.5-point spread.
