Expectations for the New York Jets were low entering the season; they finished with the second-worst record in the league in 2025 and became the first team in league history not to record an interception across a full season. Thus, despite blowing a 10-point lead against the Green Bay Packers with the chance to improve to 2-0, Jets fans have to be feeling somewhat confident.
At last season’s trade deadline, New York took a risk by dealing two-time All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner to the Indianapolis Colts for two first-round picks and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, and so far, the deal seems to be paying off; Gardner has been more good than great for Indianapolis, and both Mitchell and rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq (drafted with one of the traded picks) have been solid to begin the season.
With the Jets’ offense seemingly clicking more with Geno Smith under center than it did last season with a combination of Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook, Mitchell could be worth picking up as a flier for fantasy football.
Results and Usage
Mitchell showed flashes after his trade to New York last season, playing more than three-quarters of all possible snaps after barely touching the field for the Colts and topping the 100-yard threshold once. Although he was still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, he had at least 20 receiving yards in six consecutive games after doing so in none of his final four games in Indianapolis. This season, he’s caught nine of his 15 targets for 123 yards, including a team-high 12 targets in the overtime loss to Green Bay.
Advanced numbers suggest the breakout is real. So far, Mitchell ranks 38th among 107 qualified receivers by Pro Football Focus’ grading standards, including the 25th-best receiving grade among 103 wideouts. In fact, his receiving grade is only narrowly behind his far more accomplished teammate Garrett Wilson’s. Per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Mitchell has produced 2.7 yards of separation per route, 0.2 more than Wilson. While he’s lost 0.9 yards after the catch per reception relative to expectations, he was one of the NFL’s better after-catch receivers both last season and in college, so he’s due for some positive regression.
Mitchell has had some problems with drops, recording two already from 15 targets, but despite that, Smith is posting a better passer rating when throwing to Mitchell than any of his quarterbacks previously have.
Future Outlook
Mitchell’s prospects are a bit boom-or-bust, as he has been primarily utilized as a deep threat this season, with a 15.8-yard average depth of target that ranks 16th so far. However, Smith seems to trust him; among players with a higher ADOT, only Davante Adams has garnered more targets. This season, Smith has been good on deep passes, putting up the 15th-best PFF grade on passes of 20 yards or more and the eighth-best on passes of 10-to-19 yards. That could work in Mitchell’s favor, since Smith has been comparatively poor on shorter passes.
While Mitchell struggles to pull in contested catches sometimes, Smith’s accuracy could help him. This season, Smith leads the league in bad throw percentage and on-target percentage, and he ranks seventh in completion percentage overall. He’d also previously led the league in completion percentage in 2022, when he earned Comeback Player of the Year honors in his first season as the Seattle Seahawks’ starter. Even last season, when he led the league in interceptions, he finished third-to-last in bad throw percentage and 12th in on-target percentage. Fields made bad throws at a higher rate and posted a worse grade on both intermediate and deep passes last season than Smith has so far.
Mitchell also has a pretty favorable matchup this weekend against the Detroit Lions, who have allowed the second-most FPTS per game to opposing wide receivers so far this season. The Lions also rank seventh-to-last by PFF’s coverage grades, and their top-rated corner, D.J. Reed, has just the 34th-best marks among 95 qualified corners. In fact, Detroit’s other outside cornerback, Rock Ya-Sin, has been the ninth-worst coverage corner in football this season, and even if he regresses to his 2025 performance, he was merely average last season. The Lions have also had a comparatively solid run defense, so passing to Mitchell might be a more appealing proposition than handing it off to Breece Hall.
