KC Concepcion has caught 10 of his 11 targets. That is a 90.9% catch rate, and it is the kind of number that tells you a quarterback trusts a receiver, even when the yardage attached to it stays modest. Cleveland hosts Carolina in Week 3, a defense that has surrendered a high volume of completions and a lot of damage after the catch, which happens to be the specific thing Concepcion does for a living. Find out whether you should start or sit KC Concepcion in Week 3.
KC Concepcion Start or Sit Advice for Week 3
Concepcion holds 21.2% of Cleveland’s targets, which ties him for the team lead, and he has added four carries on top of that for 14 total touches in two games. Deshaun Watson is finding him on schedule. The separation and route work that got him on the field early are showing up in the catch rate rather than the yardage column.
Carolina is the reason to look at him this week. The Panthers have allowed 13.0 receptions per game to opposing receivers against a league mark of 11.1, and they have conceded 57.0 YAC per game against a league mark of 43.5. Their catch rate allowed sits at 74.3% while the league sits at 63.2%. What they have not given up is field position. Opposing receivers are averaging 11.0 yards per reception on them and 85.5 air yards per game, both below the league mark.
That combination is close to a description of Concepcion’s game. He is averaging 6.5 yards per target on 40 air yards and has 31 YAC. Carolina does not allow the deep throw, but it allows the short one and then struggles to tackle it. One caveat: Chicago and Atlanta have thrown about 21% below league average, so these figures read friendlier than the defense actually is.
The Biggest Fantasy Risk for KC Concepcion in Week 3
Cleveland’s offense caps this. The Browns are scoring 9.0 points per game and have converted one of five red zone trips into a touchdown. They throw it just 26.0 times per game and have allowed seven sacks. Watson’s 112.9 rating is genuinely good, but efficiency on a small number of attempts does not generate many fantasy points to distribute.
The distribution is the other problem. Denzel Boston has the same 11 targets but owns 55.1% of Cleveland’s air yards along with 154 yards and both of the team’s receiver touchdowns. Harold Fannin Jr. has nine targets for a 17.3% share, and Jerry Jeudy is still around at 9.6% even after a quiet start. Concepcion has one red zone target and no scores, so his value is almost entirely catch volume in PPR with no scoring path to fall back on.
One mitigating factor is worth naming. Carolina is averaging 27.0 points per game and throwing 37.0 times at a 62.7% pass rate, so Cleveland is likely to spend the afternoon trailing. A team behind on the scoreboard throws more, and a receiver working near the line of scrimmage benefits from that. Two games is a thin sample on both sides of this matchup.
Fantasy Outlook for KC Concepcion in Week 3
Concepcion is a Start in Week 3, and a cautious one. Six catches for 50 yards is the realistic projection, which plays in PPR and does very little in standard scoring. He needs Cleveland to throw 30-plus times to clear that, and the game script cooperating is a fair bet against this opponent.
Use him as a flex or as a fill-in if you have a bye or an injury to cover, and expect a floor rather than a spike. The ceiling arrives when this offense starts reaching the end zone, and right now it is not.
Find more Week 3 fantasy football start/sit coverage here!