Fantasy Football Must-Start Players for Week 3

We’re officially rolling into Week 3 of the NFL campaign, and as always, we have a big slate coming up on Sunday with a ton of options for fantasy contests regardless of the format you play.

Whether you’re a returning reader or a newcomer, welcome to my weekly fantasy must-start column. I’ll be here for the entire season to bring you a selection of the players you should want in your fantasy football lineups in season-long and/or DFS formats. These guys are screaming starts for one reason or another – it could be an advantageous matchup, a recent hot streak or a value price in DraftKings contests, among others – so we’re looking to find an edge through the lens of actual analysis. I just want to help you win your week!

Let’s jump in with some must-start players for fantasy football in Week 3.

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Fantasy Football Week 3 Must-Start Players

QB: Tyler Shough, Saints vs. Raiders ($5,400)

Last week, I wrote up Tyler Shough as the best quarterback option on the board. All he did was respond with 22.4 DKFP in an upset win over the Ravens on the road, so I feel really good about that one. Now, I’m running it back again.

Shough comes off a nice outing with a 27-for-34 passing line with 252 yards and a touchdown, also rushing for 23 yards and a score. After a 29.2 DKFP in Week 1, he’s now averaging 25.8 FPPG, fourth most among all quarterbacks in the player pool today (excluding Sunday Night Football). He posted his numbers with 56 pass attempts in the opener, but he also produced this past week with just 34 throws, so he doesn’t need absurd volume to look good in fantasy. That’s because his efficiency stands out with a 68.9% completion rate through two games and a 69.1% mark across his 11 career starts. What’s also particularly interesting about Shough is that he’s posting 31.57 xFPPG, which makes it frankly absurd that he’s underperforming the expectation so far this season. Either way, he’s producing and brings a little bit of threat with his legs, so I like him this week over Sam Darnold, who was my second choice thanks to a very advantageous matchup.

The Saints are a three-point favorite at home against the Raiders, who I believe have overperformed the reality of their defense. They’re first in EPA/play allowed and sixth in EPA/pass allowed, but they also faced off against the Dolphins, so it’s quite possible the stats are inflated a bit. This should be a close game that sees good volume for Shough as he tosses passes to a surging Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele.

RB: Ashton Jeanty, Raiders at Saints ($7,100)

I really wanted to put Kenneth Walker III on here as the must-start option, but I think Ashton Jeanty might be a slightly sneakier option in DFS contests if he’s rostered by fewer entries. He should still be popular, of course, but there’s also a ton of reason to pencil him in as your top running back over other names on the board.

Jeanty is averaging 23.0 FPPG through two appearances, fifth most on this DFS slate. His salary slots in at sixth among the position, so the value is priced pretty accordingly. He exploded for 35.7 DKFP in Week 1 against the Dolphins with 102 rushing yards, plus six catches for 45 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a true ceiling game. Week 2 was quieter with 10.3 DKFP on just 63 scrimmage yards, but the four catches on seven targets were a very positive takeaway from that one. Here’s the deal. Jeanty is a true workhorse with 22 rush attempts and 6.5 targets per game, averaging 26.4 xFPPG with that opportunity share. His efficiency hasn’t been great with just 3.41 YPC, but we know he’s going to get a ton of touches. Targeting him as a bell-cow back against one of the NFL’s worst run defenses makes an absolute ton of sense.

The opposing Saints are fifth-to-last in defensive EPA/rush and dead last in rushing success rate allowed. They’re allowing the fourth-most FPPG to running backs from rushing production at 20.9 DKFP and the seventh-most FPPG to the position overall at 29.5. On a per-touch basis, they’re also allowing the seventh most fantasy points at 0.98. With plenty of touches in a great matchup, Jeanty could post another ceiling game.

WR: Deebo Samuel, 49ers vs. Cardinals ($5,300)

I’m looking further down the board for something closer to a value pick with this next must-start player. At wideout, we’re going with Deebo Samuel Sr., who has the makings of a very interesting target this week at home against the Cardinals. This won’t be your top wideout in lineups, but he does deserve a spot, especially if Mike Evans (questionable; hip) sits.

Samuel reunited with the Niners this past offseason and made a quick impact in Week 1 as he caught six of his seven targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. He scored 18.0 DKFP in that matchup against a tough Rams defense, but he was quieted in Week 2 with 6.5 DKFP. Last week, he caught three of his four looks for 31 yards. The target volume isn’t anything too impressive at 19.6%, but it actually does pace San Francisco’s pass-catchers – with the caveat that Evans left last week’s game with an injury. Samuel isn’t running a ton of routes but has been effective with the chances he gets, producing 2.19 YPRR and 0.31 TPRR, the latter of which ranks fifth among 100 qualified wideouts. He also leads the team with 13.73 xFPPG and has performed largely in line with that expectation, producing 12.25 FPPG in reality. The fun part? He’s logged a carry in both of his appearances and has taken 5.6% of his snaps from the backfield.

Arizona is a great matchup, frankly. The Cardinals are giving up 40.7 FPPG to wideouts, sixth most of any team. They’re running zone at an 83.9% rate, which is an awesome sign for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy – he ranks fifth or better in EPA/dropback, CPOE and YPA against zone coverage. He should pick this defense apart since they’re down a starting cornerback and could be without another. Samuel is a must-start, but especially so if Evans doesn’t play.

TE: Dalton Schultz, Texans at Colts ($4,200)

He’s something of an obvious pick, but Dalton Schultz is perhaps one of the best tight ends on the board when it comes to Sunday’s DFS slate. He’s coming off a wild stat line and is once again positioned for a ton of targets with Texans star Nico Collins (hamstring) ruled out against the Colts.

The argument for Schultz is twofold. On one hand, you have the workload that he could command. Dating back to the start of last season, the tight end has commanded an 18.5% target share for Houston, the second highest among all players on the roster over this sample. It’s not the most important part of the argument, but one fun stat is that he’s actually lined up in the slot on 36.2% of his snaps over that same span. Since Week 1 of last season, his 6.6 targets per game rank third among 52 qualified tight ends and he’s 14th in YPRR at 1.73 – his 11.12 FPPG are 12th at the position. Looking at this year alone, Schultz averages 18.2 FPPG after a 29-DKFP performance last week that saw him command 14 targets, catching 12 for 140 yards. A repeat is unlikely as far as the target volume goes, but he should still see a ton of looks this week after seeing eight targets in Week 1 when Collins was healthy and on the field.

The matchup is the other part of the appeal with Schultz this week. Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-most DKFP to tight ends this year at 18.9 per game despite giving u just one touchdown to the position so far. The Colts have also given up an NFL-high 31.3% target share to tight ends, for what it’s worth. Given his projected role and the team he’s facing, Shultz is a smash start in Week 3 for DFS and season-long formats alike.