Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and the league landscape is beginning to take shape. After two games, the San Francisco 49ers are unbeaten but are dealing with plenty of injury woes – what’s new, though? They’re set to take on the Arizona Cardinals, who have a respectable offense and have already upset a supposed contender, but are likely to find themselves at the bottom of the NFC West.
Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for 49ers vs. Cardinals in NFL Week 3.
49ers vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
San Francisco looks quite good to start the season, upsetting the Rams 27-7 in Australia before a 35-13 win over the Dolphins last week. Injuries are already a theme – Nick Bosa (knee, calf) is out this week while Mike Evans (hip) is questionable, plus rookie standout De’Zhaun Stribling hit IR after Week 1. However, the 49ers are overcoming the circumstances.
Offensively, they’re off to a fantastic start with the fourth-most points scored and the second-best EPA/play across the NFL. Brock Purdy is dealing under center with 492 yards and five touchdowns to one interception for a passing attack that sits first in EPA/dropback. George Kittle looked healthy last week as he works back from a torn Achilles and Deebo Samuel also seems rejuvenated; even if Evans doesn’t play, there are weapons here. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been stellar as a runner, but his dual-threat ability out of the backfield has already seen him rack up 154 scrimmage yards with a pair of touchdowns. On the defensive side of things, the Niners are also looking great with just 20 points allowed through two games. They’re eighth in EPA/play allowed and have been incredibly effective when blitzing, which they may need a little more of than usual to compensate for Bosa’s absence with the star expected to be sidelined for a bit.
The expectation for Arizona was that the Cardinals would struggle this year. They likely will, but they’re 1-1 through their first two after a 26-14 win over the Chargers before a blowout 31-7 loss to the Seahawks last week. It’s not a bad start given where the bar is set, and frankly, they’ve shown enough to be at least somewhat competitive in the right circumstances.
The Cards’ offense has no shortage of talent. Trey McBride is the best tight end in football with 17 grabs for 136 yards and two touchdowns so far and Jeremiyah Love is an exciting young halfback, even if he’s seeing somewhat limited usage compared to the workhorse role he could handle. Michael Wilson broke out down the stretch last year, and while Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the NFL’s most perplexing evaluations, there’s a good player in there somewhere. Jacoby Brissett is a stable, if uninspiring quarterback who’s led them to 45 points and the 20th-ranked EPA/play to start the season. The results have been a mixed bag, but there’s a ceiling for this unit that is admittedly high. The defensive side of the ball does raise far more questions – it’s not likely they stick at 14th in EPA/play allowed, though the run defense has been respectable so far. The Cardinals haven’t generated a ton of pressure and are likely going to be susceptible to the pass throughout the year, so that’s the way for San Francisco to attack them.
49ers vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the 49ers as a -8.5 home favorite with -440 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Cardinals are a +340 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 47.5 combined points.
The status of Evans is one to monitor heading into this contest since he’ll certainly boost the ceiling for San Francisco’s passing attack if healthy. Even if he’s not out there, though, this could still be a good spot to take the Niners to cover. The 8.5-point spread is a little bit wide but certainly not insurmountable – the aerial attack is what has made the 49ers go this season, and for what it’s worth, Arizona cornerback Max Melton (toe) is questionable and fellow defensive back Will Johnson (neck) just landed on IR. The Cardinals are playing zone at a nearly 84% clip through two weeks and Purdy ranks no worse than fifth among all quarterbacks against the coverage in EPA/dropback, CPOE and YPA. He should carve this defense up on Sunday while the San Francisco defense holds the opposition in check for the Niners to cover.
