These are my picks to win every Week 3 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 3 Picks and Predictions: Straight-Up Picks with Confidence Levels
High Confidence
Chiefs over Dolphins
The Chiefs rank fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA/play through two weeks. They look like the Chiefs of old and should roll in this spot against the Dolphins, who rank last in the NFL in net EPA/play.
49ers over Cardinals
The 49ers rank second in the NFL in offensive EPA/play through two weeks. After a great Week 1 upset win by the Cardinals, Arizona looked much more like the team many thought they would be in Week 2. The 49ers should win big here.
Bills over Chargers
The Bills lead the NFL in offensive EPA/play by a wide margin through two weeks. They are also on extra rest and playing a second consecutive home game, while the Chargers are traveling across the country for this one. It’s hard to imagine Los Angeles scoring enough points to compete in this game, as it ranks 30th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play this season.
Seahawks over Commanders
The Seahawks got a gritty Week 1 win in the Super Bowl rematch after Sam Darnold went down. They got a very convincing, professional win in Week 2 against the Cardinals. Now, they get to face a backup quarterback in Week 3 against the 0-2 Commanders. Sam Darnold might also be making his return for Seattle, so the Seahawks should handle business in this spot.
Eagles over Bears
The Eagles have looked unconvincing through two games, but a veteran team finds ways to win games, even when they’re not playing their best. That is what the Eagles did against both the Commanders and the Titans. They lucked out this week, as Caleb Williams is likely to miss out with a severe minor injury. Whether it is Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent on Monday night, the Eagles should have enough offense to get the win.
Medium Confidence
Lions over Jets
The Jets have been scrappy through two weeks, but last week showed they will likely still struggle to win games against playoff-level teams. They could give the Lions a really tough game here, but Detroit should find a way to win at home with their high-level offense.
Packers over Falcons
The Packers had two tough road games to start the season, in a divisional game against Minnesota and in bad weather against the Jets. They are finally back at home in primetime, where Matt LaFleur has been so good in his career. The Packers are an NFL-best 37-24 ATS at home since 2019. The Falcons might take some time to adjust with Michael Penix Jr. making his first start of the season, and the Packers should find a way to win.
Ravens over Cowboys
The Ravens let a fourth-quarter lead slip away in New Orleans and shouldn’t let that happen again in Week 3. The Dallas defense ranks 29th in EPA/play, while the Baltimore offense ranks fifth. It’s hard to see the Cowboys getting many stops here, so the Ravens should get the win.
Bengals over Steelers
The Bengals have looked really sharp to start the season, getting a big win on the road in Houston in Week 2. Surprisingly, it has been the Cincinnati defense that has led the way, ranking fourth in the NFL in defensive EPA/play. They should completely stifle this Steelers offense that has been really poor to start the season.
Saints over Raiders
The Saints have had a great start to 2026. They took the Lions to overtime on the road and followed that up with a comeback win over the Ravens in Week 2. They should be ready for a Raiders team that ranks 25th in the NFL in EPA/play, after facing two elite offenses the first two weeks.
Rams over Broncos
The Rams showed that they are still the Rams with a dominant Week 2 win over the Giants. This will be a much tougher test on the road in Denver, but the Rams still have the edge here. Los Angeles ranks sixth in the NFL in offensive success rate and should move it efficiently against a Denver defense that has been a bit shaky to start the season. The Broncos currently rank 21st in defensive EPA/play and 26th in offensive EPA/play. The Rams are the team to back here.
Coin-Flip Games
Jaguars over Patriots
The Jaguars rank inside the top six in the NFL in both offensive EPA/play and offensive success rate. They will be a real challenge for the Patriots, who faced a backup quarterback for most of Week 1 and a bad Steelers offense in Week 2. Meanwhile, the New England offense has yet to get off the ground, ranking 22nd in EPA/play. The Jaguars should have too much offense for the Patriots.
Panthers over Browns
The Browns got a great win in Week 2, but it will be hard for them to sustain that level of performance with their lack of talent. Cleveland still ranks 20th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and should struggle against the Carolina offense. The Panthers have scored 71 points through two games and should outscore the Browns here.
Giants over Titans
The Giants are likely sending Jameis Winston out to play quarterback this week. He really struggled against the Rams, but at home, against a much weaker defense, after a week of preparation, he should look much better. This game could go either way depending on how Winston plays, but the Giants have the home-field advantage, the better coach and the better overall roster.
Colts over Texans
The Colts went down to the wire against the Chiefs in Week 2. They looked like the Colts team from last season before Daniel Jones got hurt. Indianapolis moved the ball well offensively against the Chiefs and should do so again in this game. The Colts rank second in the NFL in offensive EPA/rush and should control this game at home.
Buccaneers over Vikings
The Buccaneers have looked lackluster to start the season. However, they are desperate for a win in this spot. The Vikings have won both games to start the season in relatively bizarre fashion. While they deserve that 2-0 record, their performances are not indicative of a team that will win double-digit games this season. Tampa Bay should get their much-needed win at home in this one.
