As the “bell cow” role gets closer and closer to extinction every year, there is not a position in fantasy football filled with as much intrigue and importance as running back. Every week is a minefield; between committees, injuries and game scripts.
In this article, I’ll try to ease the burden of your mind a little bit. Take the pressure off, if you will.
Here are the touch projections for the Top 40 RBs in fantasy football in Week 3, with carries and targets isolated for those in both standard and PPR formats.
Fantasy Football RB Projections for Week 3
Generated September 23, 2026 at 12:08 PM ET
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj Touches | Proj Car | Proj Tgt | Opp Run D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | BAL | DAL | 23.5 | 22.1 | 1.4 | A+ |
| 2 | James Cook III | BUF | LAC | 23.3 | 20.7 | 2.6 | D |
| 3 | Chase Brown | CIN | PIT | 23.0 | 17.6 | 5.4 | B- |
| 4 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | MIA | 22.5 | 18.5 | 4.0 | B+ |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | GB | 22.0 | 14.3 | 7.7 | C |
| 6 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | CAR | 21.7 | 17.6 | 4.1 | A+ |
| 7 | Ashton Jeanty | LV | NO | 21.2 | 16.5 | 4.7 | B+ |
| 8 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | ARI | 20.2 | 16.3 | 3.9 | B+ |
| 9 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | NYJ | 20.1 | 14.9 | 5.2 | B- |
| 10 | Breece Hall | NYJ | DET | 20.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | A |
| 11 | Javonte Williams | DAL | BAL | 19.7 | 14.8 | 4.9 | C+ |
| 12 | De’Von Achane | MIA | KC | 19.0 | 13.1 | 5.9 | C |
| 13 | Bucky Irving | TB | MIN | 18.7 | 13.4 | 5.3 | C |
| 14 | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | TB | 18.6 | 15.0 | 3.6 | D |
| 15 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | HOU | 18.4 | 14.8 | 3.6 | D |
| 16 | Kyren Williams | LA | DEN | 18.3 | 16.0 | 2.3 | B+ |
| 17 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | CHI | 18.3 | 15.8 | 2.5 | A |
| 18 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | BUF | 17.6 | 14.7 | 2.9 | A |
| 19 | D’Andre Swift | CHI | PHI | 17.5 | 13.8 | 3.7 | B+ |
| 20 | David Montgomery | HOU | IND | 16.9 | 14.3 | 2.6 | A |
| 21 | Cam Skattebo | NYG | TEN | 16.4 | 13.3 | 3.1 | B |
| 22 | Jadarian Price | SEA | WAS | 16.4 | 14.6 | 1.8 | B+ |
| 23 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | CLE | 16.2 | 13.1 | 3.1 | B |
| 24 | MarShawn Lloyd | GB | ATL | 15.6 | 13.0 | 2.6 | D |
| 25 | Tony Pollard | TEN | NYG | 15.6 | 11.8 | 3.8 | A+ |
| 26 | Travis Etienne Jr. | NO | LV | 15.3 | 12.1 | 3.2 | B- |
| 27 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | LA | 14.9 | 11.7 | 3.2 | C+ |
| 28 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | CIN | 14.6 | 10.6 | 4.0 | B+ |
| 29 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE | JAC | 14.4 | 11.4 | 3.0 | D |
| 30 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC | NE | 14.0 | 12.2 | 1.8 | C |
| 31 | Tyler Allgeier | ARI | SF | 13.7 | 9.8 | 3.9 | C+ |
| 32 | Woody Marks | HOU | IND | 13.3 | 10.9 | 2.4 | A |
| 33 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | SEA | 11.6 | 8.8 | 2.8 | F |
| 34 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | WAS | 10.8 | 10.1 | 0.7 | B+ |
| 35 | Kaelon Black | SF | ARI | 10.3 | 9.2 | 1.1 | B+ |
| 36 | Jonah Coleman | DEN | LA | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.3 | C+ |
| 37 | Blake Corum | LA | DEN | 8.8 | 8.2 | 0.6 | B+ |
| 38 | Kyle Monangai | CHI | PHI | 8.7 | 6.9 | 1.8 | B+ |
| 39 | Rico Dowdle | PIT | CIN | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.2 | B+ |
| 40 | Emmett Johnson | KC | MIA | 7.9 | 6.5 | 1.4 | B+ |
– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.
– Opp Run D — Matchup grade for the RB from A+ (softest defense) to F (toughest), based on blended 2025 + 2026 rush yards, YPC, and TDs allowed.
– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (60% 2025 / 40% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).
– Note: Team totals for PHI@CHI are implied/derived from spread + total (DK team total markets not yet available).
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions vs. Jets | 20.1 Projected Touches
Any projection over 20 touches is quite strong, but it feels like the algorithm is cutting Gibbs’ role a little short. Yes, the consensus No. 1 player in redraft formats only rushed 16 times for 52 yards in a Week 2 loss to the Bills, but there’s a lot to unpack with that contest. First and foremost, Gibbs’ eight targets in that tilt were second to only Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 13. Also, despite it being a very short week as a lead-in to TNF, Gibbs still registered an 83.1% snap share. That is called being matchup proof. The Lions are heavy home favorites against the Jets this weekend. Gibbs will be working on extra rest. I’d be shocked if the combination of those factors didn’t translate into the former 12th-overall pick flirting with 25 touches in Week 3.
Aaron Jones, Vikings vs. Buccaneers | 18.6 Projected Touches
If you were wondering what Aaron Jones’ workload would look like with Jordan Mason (thumb) on the IL, we got a pretty definitive answer on Sunday. The veteran saw 23 of the Vikings’ 25 RB rushing attempts, which meant Jones exceeded 100 rushing yards for the first time in a regulation game since all the way back in September of 2024. Did the weather play a large factor in Minnesota’s offensive choices? Yes. Would I have liked to see Jones utilized at all in the passing attack? Also yes. However, it’s hard to be picky about an 80.8% snap share with almost a full monopoly on meaningful carries. The Buccaneers have been stout against the run this season, holding opponents to 75.0 rushing yards per game. So, if Jones underwhelms in Week 3, know that matchup, not volume, was the culprit. Well, that’s if he plays. Jones was a DNP for Wednesday’s practice session.
TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots vs. Jaguars | 14.4 Projected Touches
I don’t want to make too much of two series in a Week 2 contest, but I think what occurred in the Patriots’ first two offensive drives against the Steelers is really telling. On the opening drive, Rhamondre Stevenson loses a fumble — something he’s been prone to doing in the past. On the second drive, TreVeyon Henderson takes his third rushing attempt of the season 39 yards for a touchdown. By the time everything is said and done, Henderson logs 33 snaps to Stevenson’s 20, while the sophomore also out-carries his teammate 16 to six. Will Stevenson be in the dog house forever? Probably not. Heck, when this duo was both available in 2025, it was Stevenson who often saw a majority of the opportunities. Still, Henderson’s talent and big-play ability is undeniable. I think he has to at least be considered the 1A in this New England committee going forward into Week 3.
