Parker Washington has become the receiver Trevor Lawrence has always been dreaming of for those moments when Jacksonville needs something substantial. Against Denver, he drew a hefty 12 targets, caught seven passes for a productive 98 yards and ran routes on an excellent 87% of dropbacks. Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers were available for work, too, but they both look utterly outstripped by 11 for Jacksonville. Lawrence chose Washington anyway, and he likely will continue to do so. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New England Patriots.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Jaguars vs. Patriots prediction, preview
New England should stress-test their connections. The Patriots have played man on a substantial 45.2% of defensive dropbacks, with Carlton Davis returning alongside Christian Gonzalez. Washington has averaged a scorching 2.99 YPRR against man across a useful sample of 108 routes since 2025; Lawrence has managed a potent 8.34 YPA over 171 corresponding dropbacks. Washington is set to encounter issues will shaking these particular corners at will.
Jacksonville has produced a sterling 53% offensive success rate and an excellent +0.248 passing EPA/play through two games. Yet Lawrence threw for just a pedestrian 189 yards against Denver, and the Jaguars finished with a paltry 13 points. They spoiled a ton of points, and left a lot of meat on the bone. Their leisurely 29.7-second neutral pace also makes each stalled drive expensive: Liam Coen hasn’t been coaching an offense that races back onto the field for another chance.
Drake Maye has his own unfinished work, with one lonely passing touchdown against four punishing interceptions and New England averaging an anemic 1.15 points per drive. A.J. Brown remains unavailable; now Mike Onwenu’s season-ending ankle injury forces another interior-line change. Greg Van Roten replaces him at guard, and Jacksonville can attack a partnership that has scarcely had time to settle.
Patriots vs. Jaguars pick, best bet
Maye offers a serious counterargument against the Jaguars’ Cover 3/4 emphasis: a formidable 8.69 YPA across a substantial sample of 303 dropbacks against those looks since 2025. Hunter Henry has averaged a healthy 2.19 YPRR against them, too. Nor should Jacksonville’s stingy 55 RB rushing YPG allowed obscure its generous 2.65 adj. YBC/ATT; TreVeyon Henderson can exploit room that Cleveland and Denver failed to convert consistently into yardage.
Lawrence has healthier receiving options and a credible answer to New England’s preferred coverage, while Maye must operate through another protection adjustment. The Patriots’ suffocating 0.73 defensive points per drive merits credit, tempered by the offenses they have faced. At this number, Jacksonville can win an untidy game by a field goal and still cash; I would not follow the Jaguars through -3.5.
Best bet: Jaguars -2.5 (-118)
Final score: Jaguars 24, Patriots 20
