The Minnesota Vikings are off to a 2-0 start this season, but not without hitting a few speed bumps.
Quarterback Kyler Murray suffered a scary-looking concussion in Week 1, which forced Carson Wentz to step in under center. But Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell announced that Murray has officially cleared concussion protocol and will start Minnesota’s Week 3 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Justin Jefferson has been one of the NFL’s elite wide receivers since coming to the league, even with a revolving door of quarterbacks throwing him the ball. Minnesota will return to its expected plan at quarterback entering the year and look to build on its undefeated start.
With Murray back in Week 3, how much does this change Jefferson’s outlook?
How Does Justin Jefferson’s Fantasy Football Outlook Change with Kyler Murray at QB?
Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, Jefferson has recorded 11 receptions for 147 yards and two touchdowns. He caught eight passes for 92 yards and both touchdowns in the season opener, then caught three passes for 55 yards in Week 2. Jefferson is averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, which ranks 30th among all players and ninth among wide receivers.
There isn’t much to work off of for Murray in Minnesota. He sustained the concussion midway through the first quarter of his Vikings debut. Before that, the ex-Cardinals standout completed three of five passes for 18 yards and an interception. Jefferson caught two of those passes for 11 yards.
Traditionally, Kevin O’Connell has had one of the most quarterback-friendly systems in the NFL. Both Murray and Wentz share similar traits when it comes to taking too many risks with the ball and sometimes playing recklessly. But it’s easy to forget Murray’s peak when he first entered the league. Murray’s 16.4 fantasy points per game last year was the worst of his career, but he has tallied as many as 25.4 per game over a season and 20.8 per game over his career based on DraftKings scoring.
Jefferson had a career-worst season last year, with 1,048 receiving yards and only two touchdowns. His 12.4 fantasy football points per game last year on DraftKings scoring ranked 29th among wide receivers. The four-time Pro Bowler had never previously averaged fewer than 18.4 fantasy points per game over a season.
Given the injury disruption to Murray and what Minnesota has dealt with thus far, the start of Jefferson’s season should be viewed as largely encouraging. Murray’s ability with his legs provides a new element to this Vikings attack, and O’Connell’s track record for getting the most production possible out of his quarterbacks is strong. Jefferson is the focal point of the attack regardless of who is under center, and he has proven to be one of the most quarterback-proof pass-catchers in the league.
Minnesota made it a priority to put the ball in Jefferson’s hands in the early minutes of Week 1. Murray has the arm talent and willingness to air the ball out for big plays, more than he showed before the injury. It should also be telling for the outlook of former 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy, who has yet to make a legitimate push for the starting role amid these injury concerns. Any continuity at quarterback would be a major positive for Jefferson, given the turnover around him so far in his career.
Given the early selection it took to add Jefferson to your season-long fantasy football roster, it is worth rolling with the punches right now. I was bullish about Murray’s fantasy football outlook coming into the season, and the frustrating start is not enough to move me off of this. Be a bit more measured in DFS leagues as Murray finds his footing and settles back in. But Minnesota named the former number one pick as the starting quarterback for a reason, and he will settle in with more time. In recent years, a growing trend has emerged of struggling quarterbacks finding their footing after wiping the slate clean and joining a new organization. Sam Darnold is a recent example who achieved this in Minnesota, and don’t rule out Murray being an incoming name on this list.
Jefferson has made the most of his opportunities so far, and the offense should inch closer to its peak as Murray has more time to play alongside him. Expect Murray’s return to be viewed positively, with his best weeks of production still ahead. The Vikings will match up with the 0-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers next week, who have allowed 56 points through their first two games, and have a favorable schedule in the weeks ahead. Deshaun Watson tallied 238 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns last week, while Joe Burrow threw for 254 yards and one score in Week 1. This is a favorable matchup for Murray to return, and Jefferson should be the biggest beneficiary.
Don’t overreact to the turbulent start, and keep full expectations that Jefferson will finish the year as one of the top fantasy football performers.
