The 2026 NFL season finally began last week, so we’ve had our first taste of football. The Week 2 slate isn’t quite as stacked as the opener’s was, but an afternoon showdown in the NFC East does look like one of the top matchups of the day. The Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys are both coming off letdown losses in their respective openers; one will walk out of here still winless.
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Commanders vs. Cowboys in NFL Week 2 on Sunday.
Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction, preview
The range of outcomes for both the Commanders and Cowboys is quite wide. They have cases to compete for the NFC East if they can reach their ceilings, but could also wind up outside of the playoff picture entirely if they’re still plagued by the issues that held them back last year.
The good news for Washington is that Week 1 showed some promise against a contender. The Commanders fell to the Philadelphia Eagles in a 24-22 finish, but nearly rallied late with 14 points in the fourth quarter. Had it not been for an embarrassing penalty from Stefon Diggs, perhaps the outcome of this contest would’ve been different.
The takeaways were solid otherwise, though. The Commanders were outgained by a narrow 318-295 margin, so while their own offense sputtered at times, they weren’t dismantled by any means. Jayden Daniels threw for just 164 yards but had two touchdowns against a tough secondary – Diggs looked nice in his debut with four grabs for 55 yards and a score (penalty notwithstanding) and rookie Antonio Williams made a quick impact with a team-best 64 receiving yards and a touchdown on four catches of his own. It was a quiet day for Terry McLaurin, but we know what he’s capable of moving forward. In a difficult assignment, the Commanders looked perfectly average.
Dallas played in primetime on Sunday Night Football last week, dropping an embarrassing outing 28-20 to the New York Giants. The core of last year’s prolific offense is back in silver and blue but was largely quiet in this showing as the Cowboys finished with only 244 total yards despite going 8-for-11 on third downs. The reason for that? The Giants milked the clock in the second half and allowed only a couple of possessions for their opponent – New York logged 36:40 in the time-of-possession battle to just 23:20 for Dallas.
Once Dak Prescott settled in, he looked comfortable with 175 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though he tossed his first interception of the year. The star wideout duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were quieted with eight catches for just 82 yards between them, though Lamb did lead the team in receiving and connected on a touchdown reception. The offense didn’t get many opportunities simply because the defense couldn’t get off the field. The Cowboys conceded 394 yards in total and allowed the opposition to go 9-for-11 on third down and 4-for-4 in the red zone. It’s clear it may take time for this unit to improve, even despite the new talent.
Commanders vs. Cowboys pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cowboys as a -3.5 home favorite against the spread with -218 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Commanders are a +180 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 50.5 combined points.
This total is one of the highest of the week, but that’s no surprise given the context. Last season, Washington ranked 28th and Dallas ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed; the clubs were second-to-last and dead last in defensive EPA as well. There has been much shuffling of personnel since then with an influx of talent to varying degrees for both units, but the results of the small sample are a mixed bag. The Commanders largely held the Eagles in check during Week 1 but the Cowboys couldn’t even defend the flat against the Giants and gave up a ton of yardage.
Could we get an offensive shootout based on that? That’s the projected outlook based on this total. If both defenses are going to struggle again, then it’s probably more likely than not. However, I’d rather take the over on an alt team total of 27.5 points for the Cowboys in this one given the holes in the Commanders’ secondary. This passing attack was one of the NFL’s most prolific last season and should look more like that version of itself in Week 2, assuming Washington doesn’t follow a similar playbook to keep Prescott and Co. off the field. With the soft matchup, I’m banking on plenty of points for Dallas in the team’s home opener.
