Liam Coen put two tight ends on the field for 39.3% of Jacksonville’s snaps against Cleveland, and that tells us a lot about his adoption of heavy personnel. That figure represents more than twice last season’s rate. Trevor Lawrence used play action on 43.5% of his dropbacks, too. Coen kept calling passes from formations that got his quarterback into space by giving Cleveland good reason to commit to the run. Part of me wonders whether or not Coen was doing all this—to great success, mind you—as a test run for this very Broncos defense. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Broncos vs. Jaguars prediction, preview
Denver is poised, but they can still get caught between these formations. With linebackers on the field, Coen can call passes for his tight ends; against another defensive back, he can hand the ball to Bhayshul Tuten. Lawrence has Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers available after limited practices, so Jacksonville can spread the field from its usual receiving formations, too. Denver’s used to heavy packages, as it’s a league-wide movement right now. But the skill position group in Jacksonville, combined with all their momentum and their searing-hot franchise quarterback—it might feel a little like a punch in the mouth at home from the jump.
Denver’s preference for man coverage gives Lawrence a second way to attack. The Broncos have played man on 36% of their coverage snaps since 2025. During that same period, Lawrence has averaged 8.58 YPA against man on 158 dropbacks, while the fantasy football supernova Parker Washington has produced 2.93 yards per route on 95 routes. Washington caught six passes for 145 yards and a touchdown against Denver last season. Lawrence will be looking for him on the passing downs when the run fake fools nobody.
Lawrence threw four touchdowns on 23 attempts against Cleveland. I’ll happily accept less spectacular production if Coen keeps creating favorable passing situations, which he will. He’s a sicko for this kind of stuff with Lawrence. Denver also allowed the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact last season. Kenneth Walker’s 173-yard opener against the Broncos should raise our eyebrows, but I’d still expect Tuten to face a much harder afternoon than that. Coen should still expect to need Lawrence to do his thing on third down.
Denver has more repair work on offense than it does momentum-ferrying. Bo Nix averaged 6.4 yards per attempt across an NFL-high 612 attempts last season, then just 4.7 against Kansas City. His average target traveled just 3.8 yards in that opener. New play-caller Davis Webb has a short week after Monday’s road game to develop something more productive, and he’ll need to. The blame falls on both Nix and Webb, but it sure felt like Webb didn’t set his franchise QB up for success.
Jaguars vs. Broncos pick, best bet
New high-flying acquisition Jaylen Waddle is where I’d start. Jacksonville used Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.3% of its coverage snaps last week, and Waddle has averaged 3.07 yards per route against those coverages since 2025. Waddle’s speed gives Denver a way to stretch those zones. Marvin Mims is out, however, and running back RJ Harvey is questionable with a hamstring injury.
I prefer Jacksonville’s available receivers and Coen’s ways of getting them favorable matchups. Denver can recover enough offensively to keep this close, but Lawrence can win this game outright. I’ll take Jacksonville to win their tenth in a row on the road in Week 2’s best game
Best bet: Jaguars ML (+130)
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Broncos 23.
