Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Saturday afternoon’s tilt between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the NC State Wolfpack.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Vandy vs. NC State player props
CJ Bailey u218.5 passing yards (-115)
Last week’s NC State’s 73-point rebound makes it tempting to treat their lifeless Virginia opener as a total anomaly. Resist it, though. Wax in the mens’ ears, etc. For I am keeping that afternoon very much in mind. The Wolfpack gained only 168 total yards against the Cavaliers in that game. And, last week, their demolition of Richmond leaned heavily on eight rushing touchdowns from an offense that used 10(!) different ball carriers.
For CJ Bailey, the Vanderbilt matchup will stress-test just how long his protection can hold. NC State’s allowing sacks at an 8% clip on pass attempts, while the Commodores have generated negative plays on 14% of opposing snaps. Their line is still gelling. All of this leaves Bailey vulnerable to stalled possessions before he can chuck a decent yardage number in the box score.
Bailey can keep NC State involved and still finish around my 195-yard estimate. The Wolfpack will likely hang around, preserve his workload. I’m taking under 218.5 all the same. Richmond never made NC State demonstrate that its protection problems were repaired. I gotta see it, first, and I don’t think I will this weekend.
Jared Curtis o192.5 passing yards (-115)
Jared Curtis gets his first Vanderbilt start after giving Clark Lea a no choice but to experiment with the change. The freshman completed 14 of 22 passes for 210 yards in relief against Delaware, rescuing an offense that had spent its opening possessions accomplishing, frankly, diddly. I like what I saw then, and I like the matchup today.
NC State has allowed only 6.1 yards per pass attempt, which’ll be a much more fun test for Curtis’s ceiling as a leader. Vanderbilt, however, works at a tempo that makes 193 yards feel entirely attainable. Vanderbilt has used 23.9 seconds per play, 11th in Pick Six’s Power Four sample, and NC State plays quickly as well. A competitive game should keep a bit of a manic speed, and the passing attempts whould pile up for Curtis.
His own legs remain a complication toward total reliance on his arm; he ran in two touchdowns last week. Still, I have Curtis near 215 passing yards on roughly 30 attempts, cutting his efficiency substantially while allowing time for the inevitable freshman misfire.
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