Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Saturday evening’s bout between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Kentucky Wildcats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas A&M vs. Kentucky player props
Kenny Minchey u187.5 passing yards (-114)
Kenny Minchey finished last week’s game against Alabama with 146 yards on 31 attempts, but three early Alabama turnovers were really the most responsible for helping the Wildcats reach their 17 total points. Once the defense stopped gifting possessions to the offense, Kentucky never scored again.
Texas A&M should present another difficult test for Minchey &co., although Arizona State managed several substantial gains against the Aggies last week. So far on the season, Aggies have allowed 5.6 yards per pass attempt through two games, and Kentucky’s protection has surrendered sacks at a rate equivalent to 7% of its passing attempts. I expect empty drives, even if Minchey needs to throw a ton.
Wildcats’ offensive coordinator Will Stein can improve the design and sequencing, but Kentucky still needs better poise under pressure. Roughly 30 attempts and 170 yards would represent better efficiency for Minchey than he managed against Alabama. I’m comfortable allowing that improvement and taking under 187.5. The uncomfortable stretch would come late, if A&M trades easy completions for a running clock; below 180, that possibility would leave me much less room to work.
Marcel Reed u230.5 passing yards (-115)
Texas A&M scored 48 points against Arizona State with only 255 yards of offense. The defense created two scores themselves on pick-sixes, which meant Marcel Reed didn’t need to do a ton to keep the margin massive. He finished that win with 163 passing yards.
Kentucky does give Reed an opportunity to improve; his season average sits at 6.9 yards per attempt. Opponents have converted half their third downs against the Wildcats, so several Aggies possessions should survive an unsuccessful early play. Still, extended drives can also end with Reed keeping the ball or handing it off for scores, particularly if A&M’s defense again gives him a lead worth protecting.
My estimate of roughly 215 yards allows Reed better production than last week without mistaking defensive touchdowns for evidence of a prolific passing offense. Kentucky’s possible improvement with cornerback Terhyon Nichols expected back helps at the margin, though my confidence in this ticket isn’t reliant upon it.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
